Today's Slate/Players/Carson Kelly

Carson Kelly

BatsRightThrowsRightAge31Height6'1"Weight212 lbs

Next Game · Sat, Apr 18

vs New York Mets

6:20 PM

Wrigley Field

HR Probability

12.0%

medium confidence

Facing

Freddy Peralta

RHP

ERA

3.86

HR/9

1.30

Game Details

See full lineup analysis, both pitcher profiles, and park factors for this matchup.

Full matchup page →

CaveatsInsufficient handedness split data (using neutral)

2026 Statcast Profile

59 PA

Slash Line

AVG.327

OBP.441

SLG.449

OPS.890

ISO—

HR: 1RBI: 7BB: 10K: 8

Quality of Contact

Barrel%

13.5%

Hard-Hit%

62.2%

Avg Exit Velo

95.2 mph

Launch Angle

15.9°

Expected Stats

xwOBA

.426

xISO

.208

—

BB%

—

Splits & Recent Form

Handedness Splits

vs LHP

—

OPS

0 HR in 0 PA

vs RHP

—

OPS

0 HR in 0 PA

Last 15 Games

HRs

—

OPS

—

Barrel%

Over 55 PA in the last 15 games

Forecast History

Not enough forecast history yet to chart.

Each dot is a day's forecast. Filled dots mark games where Carson Kelly actually homered. Used to gauge whether our model's confidence is calibrated on this player specifically.

Last 15 Games

No recent game data available.

How to Read These Numbers

Percentile bars show where each stat ranks within a reasonable league context, not strict percentiles. Values closer to the right edge are elite; left edge is poor. Read the full methodology for how we build HR probabilities and why most BvP splits aren't used.