Today's Slate/Players/Dansby Swanson

Chicago Cubs·SS

Dansby Swanson

BatsRightThrowsRightAge32Height6'0"Weight190 lbs

Next Game · Sat, Apr 18

vs New York Mets

6:20 PM

Wrigley Field

HR Probability

15.0%

medium confidence

Swanson's 4.0% home-run rate (1.25x) anchors this 15% projection, supported by a 12.4% barrel rate that grades in the top quartile; Peralta allows just 9.3% barrels while Wrigley's modest 103 HR factor offers minimal boost, though a 1-for-20 career line against him counsels caution on the matchup history.

Facing

Freddy Peralta

RHP

ERA

3.86

HR/9

1.30

Game Details

See full lineup analysis, both pitcher profiles, and park factors for this matchup.

Full matchup page →

CaveatsInsufficient handedness split data (using neutral)

2026 Statcast Profile

79 PA

Slash Line

AVG.210

OBP.354

SLG.419

OPS.773

ISO—

HR: 4RBI: 12BB: 15K: 19

Quality of Contact

Barrel%

14.3%

Hard-Hit%

54.8%

Avg Exit Velo

90.1 mph

Launch Angle

12.3°

Expected Stats

xwOBA

.351

xISO

.195

—

BB%

—

Splits & Recent Form

Handedness Splits

vs LHP

—

OPS

0 HR in 0 PA

vs RHP

—

OPS

0 HR in 0 PA

Last 15 Games

HRs

—

OPS

—

Barrel%

Over 64 PA in the last 15 games

Forecast History

Not enough forecast history yet to chart.

Each dot is a day's forecast. Filled dots mark games where Dansby Swanson actually homered. Used to gauge whether our model's confidence is calibrated on this player specifically.

Last 15 Games

No recent game data available.

How to Read These Numbers

Percentile bars show where each stat ranks within a reasonable league context, not strict percentiles. Values closer to the right edge are elite; left edge is poor. Read the full methodology for how we build HR probabilities and why most BvP splits aren't used.