Today's Slate/Players/Francisco Alvarez

Francisco Alvarez

BatsRightThrowsRightAge24Height5'10"Weight233 lbs

Next Game · Sat, Apr 18

@ Chicago Cubs

6:20 PM

Wrigley Field

HR Probability

15.8%

medium confidence

Alvarez's 14.4% barrel rate grades 25% above baseline, while his 3.9% HR rate per plate appearance adds another 23% boost; Taillon's modest 1.31 HR/9 and Wrigley's neutral park factor (103) offer only modest headwinds to the 15.8% projection.

Facing

Jameson Taillon

RHP

ERA

4.86

HR/9

2.70

Game Details

See full lineup analysis, both pitcher profiles, and park factors for this matchup.

Full matchup page →

CaveatsInsufficient handedness split data (using neutral)

2026 Statcast Profile

63 PA

Slash Line

AVG.294

OBP.410

SLG.549

OPS.959

ISO—

HR: 4RBI: 5BB: 8K: 11

Quality of Contact

Barrel%

21.6%

Hard-Hit%

48.6%

Avg Exit Velo

89.5 mph

Launch Angle

6.3°

Expected Stats

xwOBA

.459

xISO

.376

—

BB%

—

Splits & Recent Form

Handedness Splits

vs LHP

—

OPS

0 HR in 0 PA

vs RHP

—

OPS

0 HR in 0 PA

Last 15 Games

HRs

—

OPS

—

Barrel%

Over 55 PA in the last 15 games

Forecast History

Not enough forecast history yet to chart.

Each dot is a day's forecast. Filled dots mark games where Francisco Alvarez actually homered. Used to gauge whether our model's confidence is calibrated on this player specifically.

Last 15 Games

No recent game data available.

How to Read These Numbers

Percentile bars show where each stat ranks within a reasonable league context, not strict percentiles. Values closer to the right edge are elite; left edge is poor. Read the full methodology for how we build HR probabilities and why most BvP splits aren't used.