Ian Happ
vs New York Mets
Happ's 4.1% home-run rate per plate appearance grades 27% above league average and anchors the 15.2% projection; his 12.4% barrel rate compounds that edge despite Peralta's modest 9.3% barrel-rate allowance. Career data against Peralta (1 HR in 38 PA) sits thin enough to sideline, but the strikeout frequency (14 in 38) signals contact risk that tempers the baseline case.
See full lineup analysis, both pitcher profiles, and park factors for this matchup.
2026 Statcast Profile
Splits & Recent Form
Forecast History
Each dot is a day's forecast. Filled dots mark games where Ian Happ actually homered. Used to gauge whether our model's confidence is calibrated on this player specifically.
Last 15 Games
Percentile bars show where each stat ranks within a reasonable league context, not strict percentiles. Values closer to the right edge are elite; left edge is poor. Read the full methodology for how we build HR probabilities and why most BvP splits aren't used.