Vol. I · Issue 18
Saturday, April 18, 2026

The Dinger Almanac

··· Baseball Statistics & Analysis ···


Today's Slate/Players/Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor

BatsLeftThrowsLeftAge28Height5'10"Weight235 lbs

Next Game · Sat, Apr 18

vs Texas Rangers

11:15 PM
T-Mobile Park

HR Probability
11.6%
medium confidence
Facing

Nathan Eovaldi

RHP
ERA
5.40
HR/9
1.70
Game Details

See full lineup analysis, both pitcher profiles, and park factors for this matchup.

Full matchup page →
CaveatsInsufficient handedness split data (using neutral)

2026 Statcast Profile

85 PA

Slash Line
AVG.130
OBP.212
SLG.208
OPS.420
ISO
HR: 2RBI: 7BB: 7K: 15
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
6.6%
Hard-Hit%
36.1%
Avg Exit Velo
87.3 mph
Launch Angle
13.7°
Expected Stats
xwOBA
.288
xISO
.143
K%
BB%

Splits & Recent Form


Handedness Splits
vs LHP
OPS
0 HR in 0 PA
vs RHP
OPS
0 HR in 0 PA
Last 15 Games
2
HRs
OPS
Barrel%
Over 63 PA in the last 15 games

Forecast History


14-Day Forecast History
avg 11.7%
0%3%5%8%10%13%15%Apr 17Apr 17Apr 18
HR hitNo HRPending

Each dot is a day's forecast. Filled dots mark games where Josh Naylor actually homered. Used to gauge whether our model's confidence is calibrated on this player specifically.

Last 15 Games


No recent game data available.
How to Read These Numbers

Percentile bars show where each stat ranks within a reasonable league context, not strict percentiles. Values closer to the right edge are elite; left edge is poor. Read the full methodology for how we build HR probabilities and why most BvP splits aren't used.