Vol. I · Issue 18
Saturday, April 18, 2026

The Dinger Almanac

··· Baseball Statistics & Analysis ···


Today's Slate/Players/Josh Smith

Josh Smith

BatsLeftThrowsRightAge28Height5'9"Weight172 lbs

Next Game · Sat, Apr 18

@ Seattle Mariners

11:15 PM
T-Mobile Park

HR Probability
9.4%
medium confidence
Facing

George Kirby

RHP
ERA
3.25
HR/9
1.00
Game Details

See full lineup analysis, both pitcher profiles, and park factors for this matchup.

Full matchup page →
CaveatsInsufficient handedness split data (using neutral)

2026 Statcast Profile

66 PA

Slash Line
AVG.169
OBP.258
SLG.186
OPS.444
ISO
HR: 0RBI: 5BB: 7K: 13
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
6.7%
Hard-Hit%
33.3%
Avg Exit Velo
86.4 mph
Launch Angle
13.6°
Expected Stats
xwOBA
.290
xISO
.127
K%
BB%

Splits & Recent Form


Handedness Splits
vs LHP
OPS
0 HR in 0 PA
vs RHP
OPS
0 HR in 0 PA
Last 15 Games
0
HRs
OPS
Barrel%
Over 48 PA in the last 15 games

Forecast History


14-Day Forecast History
avg 9.0%
0%3%5%8%10%13%15%Apr 17Apr 17Apr 18
HR hitNo HRPending

Each dot is a day's forecast. Filled dots mark games where Josh Smith actually homered. Used to gauge whether our model's confidence is calibrated on this player specifically.

Last 15 Games


No recent game data available.
How to Read These Numbers

Percentile bars show where each stat ranks within a reasonable league context, not strict percentiles. Values closer to the right edge are elite; left edge is poor. Read the full methodology for how we build HR probabilities and why most BvP splits aren't used.