Ketel Marte
vs Toronto Blue Jays
Marte's 12.3% barrel rate grades at the 65th percentile and carries a 1.2x multiplier on the base probability, anchoring this matchup above his 3.7% seasonal HR rate. Scherzer's minuscule 10.1 IP sample tempers any read on his 1.31 HR/9, though Chase Field's 107 park factor provides modest lift.
See full lineup analysis, both pitcher profiles, and park factors for this matchup.
2026 Statcast Profile
Splits & Recent Form
Forecast History
Each dot is a day's forecast. Filled dots mark games where Ketel Marte actually homered. Used to gauge whether our model's confidence is calibrated on this player specifically.
Last 15 Games
Percentile bars show where each stat ranks within a reasonable league context, not strict percentiles. Values closer to the right edge are elite; left edge is poor. Read the full methodology for how we build HR probabilities and why most BvP splits aren't used.