Today's Slate/Players/Nolan Arenado

Nolan Arenado

BatsRightThrowsRightAge35Height6'2"Weight215 lbs

Next Game · Sat, Apr 18

vs Toronto Blue Jays

12:10 AM

Chase Field

HR Probability

14.1%

low confidence

Arenado's 3.7% HR rate per PA (1.16x) anchors a modest forecast, though his 4.0% barrel rate sits below season standard and Scherzer's sparse 10.1-inning sample (1.31 HR/9) limits pitcher reliability.

Facing

Max Scherzer

RHP

ERA

9.58

HR/9

3.50

Game Details

See full lineup analysis, both pitcher profiles, and park factors for this matchup.

Full matchup page →

CaveatsSmall sample for Max Scherzer (10.1 IP) · Insufficient handedness split data (using neutral)

2026 Statcast Profile

68 PA

Slash Line

AVG.212

OBP.221

SLG.364

OPS.585

ISO—

HR: 3RBI: 10BB: 1K: 16

Quality of Contact

Barrel%

4.2%

Hard-Hit%

22.9%

Avg Exit Velo

83.1 mph

Launch Angle

23.2°

Expected Stats

xwOBA

.231

xISO

.088

—

BB%

—

Splits & Recent Form

Handedness Splits

vs LHP

—

OPS

0 HR in 0 PA

vs RHP

—

OPS

0 HR in 0 PA

Last 15 Games

HRs

—

OPS

—

Barrel%

Over 57 PA in the last 15 games

Forecast History

14-Day Forecast History

avg 13.7%

HR hitNo HRPending

Each dot is a day's forecast. Filled dots mark games where Nolan Arenado actually homered. Used to gauge whether our model's confidence is calibrated on this player specifically.

Last 15 Games

No recent game data available.

How to Read These Numbers

Percentile bars show where each stat ranks within a reasonable league context, not strict percentiles. Values closer to the right edge are elite; left edge is poor. Read the full methodology for how we build HR probabilities and why most BvP splits aren't used.