Vol. I · Issue 18
Saturday, April 18, 2026

The Dinger Almanac

··· Baseball Statistics & Analysis ···


Today's Slate/Players/Troy Johnston

Troy Johnston

BatsLeftThrowsLeftAge28Height5'11"Weight206 lbs

Next Game · Sat, Apr 18

vs Los Angeles Dodgers

12:10 AM
Coors Field

HR Probability
14.4%
medium confidence

Coors Field's 118 HR factor grades as the primary driver, inflating the baseline by 18%, while Sheehan's 1.27 HR/9 rate further elevates the matchup despite Johnston's modest 8.3% barrel rate limiting upside.

Facing

Emmet Sheehan

RHP
ERA
6.60
HR/9
2.40
Game Details

See full lineup analysis, both pitcher profiles, and park factors for this matchup.

Full matchup page →
CaveatsInsufficient handedness split data (using neutral)

2026 Statcast Profile

61 PA

Slash Line
AVG.273
OBP.333
SLG.436
OPS.769
ISO
HR: 2RBI: 8BB: 4K: 13
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
4.9%
Hard-Hit%
36.6%
Avg Exit Velo
88.8 mph
Launch Angle
7.7°
Expected Stats
xwOBA
.334
xISO
.183
K%
BB%

Splits & Recent Form


Handedness Splits
vs LHP
OPS
0 HR in 0 PA
vs RHP
OPS
0 HR in 0 PA
Last 15 Games
2
HRs
OPS
Barrel%
Over 57 PA in the last 15 games

Forecast History


14-Day Forecast History
avg 14.1%
0%3%5%8%10%13%15%Apr 17Apr 17Apr 18
HR hitNo HRPending

Each dot is a day's forecast. Filled dots mark games where Troy Johnston actually homered. Used to gauge whether our model's confidence is calibrated on this player specifically.

Last 15 Games


No recent game data available.
How to Read These Numbers

Percentile bars show where each stat ranks within a reasonable league context, not strict percentiles. Values closer to the right edge are elite; left edge is poor. Read the full methodology for how we build HR probabilities and why most BvP splits aren't used.