Zach Neto
vs San Diego Padres
Neto's 13.1% barrel rate grades above league average and carries the heaviest weight here, though Márquez's modest 1.33 HR/9 and 11.1% barrel-rate allowed provide meaningful resistance. The 13-inning sample on Márquez limits conviction in the pitcher's true talent profile.
See full lineup analysis, both pitcher profiles, and park factors for this matchup.
2026 Statcast Profile
Splits & Recent Form
Forecast History
Each dot is a day's forecast. Filled dots mark games where Zach Neto actually homered. Used to gauge whether our model's confidence is calibrated on this player specifically.
Last 15 Games
Percentile bars show where each stat ranks within a reasonable league context, not strict percentiles. Values closer to the right edge are elite; left edge is poor. Read the full methodology for how we build HR probabilities and why most BvP splits aren't used.