Vol. I · Issue 18
Saturday, April 18, 2026

The Dinger Almanac

··· Baseball Statistics & Analysis ···


Today's Slate/Players/Brandon Lowe

Brandon Lowe

BatsLeftThrowsRightAge31Height5'9"Weight181 lbs

Next Game · Sat, Apr 18

vs Tampa Bay Rays

8:05 PM
PNC Park

HR Probability
14.7%
medium confidence

Lowe's 4.4% HR rate per PA — a 38% boost over baseline — anchors the forecast, though PNC Park's 93 HR factor and Rasmussen's stingy 6.3% barrel rate allowed compress the ceiling to 14.7%.

Facing

Drew Rasmussen

RHP
ERA
1.13
HR/9
1.10
Game Details

See full lineup analysis, both pitcher profiles, and park factors for this matchup.

Full matchup page →
CaveatsInsufficient handedness split data (using neutral)

2026 Statcast Profile

82 PA

Slash Line
AVG.286
OBP.390
SLG.643
OPS1.033
ISO
HR: 7RBI: 18BB: 11K: 17
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
10.4%
Hard-Hit%
41.7%
Avg Exit Velo
85.2 mph
Launch Angle
15.9°
Expected Stats
xwOBA
.356
xISO
.191
K%
BB%

Splits & Recent Form


Handedness Splits
vs LHP
OPS
0 HR in 0 PA
vs RHP
OPS
0 HR in 0 PA
Last 15 Games
4
HRs
OPS
Barrel%
Over 68 PA in the last 15 games

Forecast History


Not enough forecast history yet to chart.

Each dot is a day's forecast. Filled dots mark games where Brandon Lowe actually homered. Used to gauge whether our model's confidence is calibrated on this player specifically.

Last 15 Games


No recent game data available.
How to Read These Numbers

Percentile bars show where each stat ranks within a reasonable league context, not strict percentiles. Values closer to the right edge are elite; left edge is poor. Read the full methodology for how we build HR probabilities and why most BvP splits aren't used.