Matchup · Saturday, April 18, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays
at Pittsburgh Pirates
3:30 PM ET · 12:30 PM PTPNC Park, Pittsburghopen roof
The Headline
Brandon Lowe enters this game with a 14.7% model-estimated probability of homering at PNC Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor93
RHB HR factor97
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Drew Rasmussen
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA1.13
WHIP0.56
IP16.0
HR/91.10
K/99.6
xwOBA0.254
Barrel%9.8%
Hard-hit%43.9%
Home Starter · RHP
Paul Skenes
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA4.00
WHIP0.94
IP18.0
HR/91.00
K/99.0
xwOBA0.252
Barrel%6.7%
Hard-hit%28.9%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Tampa Bay Rays
vs Paul Skenes
Junior Caminero
RHB·4 HR / 86 PA·Brl 8.8%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
13.9%
Jonny DeLuca
RHB·2 HR / 38 PA·Brl 6.7%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
12.2%
Jonathan Aranda
LHB·3 HR / 86 PA·Brl 9.4%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
12.0%
Yandy Díaz
RHB·3 HR / 86 PA·Brl 6.1%
vs SP: 3-for-6 · .500 · 1 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
11.9%
Richie Palacios
LHB·1 HR / 34 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.3%
Ryan Vilade
RHB·0 HR / 24 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.9%
Jake Fraley
LHB·1 HR / 46 PA·Brl 6.3%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
10.8%
Nick Fortes
RHB·1 HR / 55 PA·Brl 2.2%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
10.7%
Hunter Feduccia
LHB·0 HR / 23 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.5%
Cedric Mullins
LHB·1 HR / 69 PA·Brl 2.0%
10.2%
Taylor Walls
SHB·0 HR / 35 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
9.7%
Ben Williamson
RHB·0 HR / 61 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.3%
Home Lineup
Pittsburgh Pirates
Brandon Lowe
LHB·7 HR / 82 PA·Brl 13.2%
14.7%
Oneil Cruz
LHB·6 HR / 89 PA·Brl 21.2%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
14.5%
Bryan Reynolds
SHB·3 HR / 87 PA·Brl 10.0%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
12.3%
Joey Bart
RHB·1 HR / 31 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.0%
Ryan O'Hearn
LHB·3 HR / 80 PA·Brl 8.9%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.9%
Marcell Ozuna
RHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 6.7%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.1%
Spencer Horwitz
LHB·1 HR / 60 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.8%
Henry Davis
RHB·0 HR / 47 PA·Brl 6.5%
10.3%
Konnor Griffin
RHB·0 HR / 52 PA·Brl 9.4%
10.2%
Jake Mangum
SHB·0 HR / 45 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.7%
Nick Gonzales
RHB·0 HR / 65 PA·Brl 2.1%
9.4%
Nick Yorke
RHB·0 HR / 57 PA·Brl 5.3%
9.4%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.