Vol. I · Issue 18
Saturday, April 18, 2026

The Dinger Almanac

··· Baseball Statistics & Analysis ···


Today's Slate/Players/Carter Jensen

Carter Jensen

BatsLeftThrowsRightAge22Height6'0"Weight210 lbs

Next Game · Sat, Apr 18

@ New York Yankees

5:35 PM
Yankee Stadium

HR Probability
16.7%
medium confidence

Jensen's 19.1% barrel rate grades 31% above baseline, and his 4.0% HR rate per plate appearance adds another 26% lift in this favorable right-field environment at Yankee Stadium (120 HR factor). Warren's modest 10.9% barrel rate allowed provides minimal resistance to the primary drivers.

Facing

Will Warren

RHP
ERA
2.45
HR/9
1.00
Game Details

See full lineup analysis, both pitcher profiles, and park factors for this matchup.

Full matchup page →
CaveatsInsufficient handedness split data (using neutral)

2026 Statcast Profile

62 PA

Slash Line
AVG.214
OBP.274
SLG.446
OPS.720
ISO
HR: 4RBI: 10BB: 5K: 20
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
13.5%
Hard-Hit%
43.2%
Avg Exit Velo
89.1 mph
Launch Angle
9.8°
Expected Stats
xwOBA
.282
xISO
.207
K%
BB%

Splits & Recent Form


Handedness Splits
vs LHP
OPS
0 HR in 0 PA
vs RHP
OPS
0 HR in 0 PA
Last 15 Games
3
HRs
OPS
Barrel%
Over 49 PA in the last 15 games

Forecast History


Not enough forecast history yet to chart.

Each dot is a day's forecast. Filled dots mark games where Carter Jensen actually homered. Used to gauge whether our model's confidence is calibrated on this player specifically.

Last 15 Games


No recent game data available.
How to Read These Numbers

Percentile bars show where each stat ranks within a reasonable league context, not strict percentiles. Values closer to the right edge are elite; left edge is poor. Read the full methodology for how we build HR probabilities and why most BvP splits aren't used.