Matchup · Saturday, April 18, 2026
Kansas City Royals
at New York Yankees
1:35 PM ET · 10:35 AM PTYankee Stadium, Bronxopen roof
The Headline
Aaron Judge enters this game with a 16.9% model-estimated probability of homering at Yankee Stadium, one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor120
RHB HR factor105
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Noah Cameron
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA3.71
WHIP1.24
IP17.0
HR/91.10
K/97.4
xwOBA0.358
Barrel%10.2%
Hard-hit%44.9%
Home Starter · RHP
Will Warren
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA2.33
WHIP1.24
IP19.1
HR/90.90
K/910.2
xwOBA0.308
Barrel%3.8%
Hard-hit%45.3%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Kansas City Royals
vs Will Warren
Carter Jensen
LHB·4 HR / 62 PA·Brl 13.5%
15.0%
Salvador Perez
RHB·3 HR / 81 PA·Brl 10.2%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
13.6%
Vinnie Pasquantino
LHB·2 HR / 87 PA·Brl 8.5%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.9%
Jonathan India
RHB·2 HR / 58 PA·Brl 5.7%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.6%
Tyler Tolbert
RHB·0 HR / 4 PA·Brl 0.0%
12.2%
Maikel Garcia
RHB·2 HR / 89 PA·Brl 10.8%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.2%
Starling Marte
RHB·0 HR / 20 PA·Brl 15.4%
11.6%
Kyle Isbel
LHB·2 HR / 54 PA·Brl 5.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.2%
Michael Massey
LHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 9.1%
11.1%
Jac Caglianone
LHB·0 HR / 67 PA·Brl 12.8%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
10.9%
Isaac Collins
SHB·1 HR / 49 PA·Brl 11.1%
10.4%
Bobby Witt Jr.
RHB·0 HR / 88 PA·Brl 11.7%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA
10.3%
Home Lineup
New York Yankees
vs Noah Cameron
Aaron Judge
RHB·8 HR / 87 PA·Brl 27.5%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 1 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
16.9%
Ben Rice
LHB·6 HR / 74 PA·Brl 22.5%
16.6%
Trent Grisham
LHB·2 HR / 76 PA·Brl 10.2%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
14.2%
Amed Rosario
RHB·2 HR / 41 PA·Brl 12.9%
13.3%
Ryan McMahon
LHB·1 HR / 51 PA·Brl 11.1%
13.3%
Paul Goldschmidt
RHB·1 HR / 20 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
13.1%
Austin Wells
LHB·1 HR / 60 PA·Brl 8.1%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 1 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.8%
Giancarlo Stanton
RHB·2 HR / 77 PA·Brl 15.2%
11.7%
Cody Bellinger
LHB·1 HR / 83 PA·Brl 6.8%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
11.6%
Randal Grichuk
RHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 44.4%
10.7%
J.C. Escarra
LHB·0 HR / 16 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.4%
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
LHB·0 HR / 78 PA·Brl 4.3%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
9.8%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.