Dominic Smith
@ Philadelphia Phillies
Smith's 4.2% HR rate grades as the primary lever here, amplified 1.3x relative to league baseline, while Citizens Bank Park's 113 HR factor adds another 13% boost; Sánchez's 1.10 HR/9 and Smith's modest 5.0% barrel rate apply modest downward pressure.
See full lineup analysis, both pitcher profiles, and park factors for this matchup.
2026 Statcast Profile
Splits & Recent Form
Forecast History
Each dot is a day's forecast. Filled dots mark games where Dominic Smith actually homered. Used to gauge whether our model's confidence is calibrated on this player specifically.
Last 15 Games
Percentile bars show where each stat ranks within a reasonable league context, not strict percentiles. Values closer to the right edge are elite; left edge is poor. Read the full methodology for how we build HR probabilities and why most BvP splits aren't used.