Matchup · Saturday, April 18, 2026
Atlanta Braves
at Philadelphia Phillies
7:15 PM ET · 4:15 PM PTCitizens Bank Park, Philadelphiaopen roof
The Headline
Kyle Schwarber enters this game with a 17.5% model-estimated probability of homering at Citizens Bank Park, one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor113
RHB HR factor109
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Chris Sale
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA3.27
WHIP1.05
IP22.0
HR/91.60
K/99.0
xwOBA0.315
Barrel%10.3%
Hard-hit%32.8%
Home Starter · LHP
Cristopher Sánchez
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA2.01
WHIP1.39
IP22.1
HR/90.40
K/912.5
xwOBA0.275
Barrel%12.3%
Hard-hit%49.1%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Atlanta Braves
Matt Olson
LHB·5 HR / 89 PA·Brl 20.8%
vs SP: 6-for-18 · .333 · 2 HR · 3 K · 18 PA
15.7%
Dominic Smith
LHB·4 HR / 50 PA·Brl 9.5%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
14.1%
Drake Baldwin
LHB·5 HR / 91 PA·Brl 14.9%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
13.6%
Austin Riley
RHB·3 HR / 84 PA·Brl 12.1%
vs SP: 4-for-9 · .444 · 1 HR · 2 K · 10 PA
13.6%
Michael Harris II
LHB·3 HR / 69 PA·Brl 17.6%
vs SP: 2-for-15 · .133 · 0 HR · 10 K · 16 PA
12.7%
Jorge Mateo
RHB·1 HR / 17 PA·Brl 18.2%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.6%
Ozzie Albies
SHB·4 HR / 85 PA·Brl 3.0%
vs SP: 6-for-12 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 13 PA
12.4%
Kyle Farmer
RHB·0 HR / 7 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 1 HR · 2 K · 8 PA
11.7%
Mauricio Dubón
RHB·2 HR / 74 PA·Brl 6.9%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.5%
Ronald Acuña Jr.
RHB·1 HR / 90 PA·Brl 14.8%
vs SP: 3-for-9 · .333 · 1 HR · 3 K · 9 PA
11.4%
Eli White
RHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.3%
Jonah Heim
SHB·0 HR / 22 PA·Brl 6.3%
11.0%
Home Lineup
Philadelphia Phillies
vs Chris Sale
Kyle Schwarber
LHB·6 HR / 84 PA·Brl 27.8%
vs SP: 4-for-14 · .286 · 2 HR · 6 K · 15 PA
17.5%
Bryce Harper
LHB·4 HR / 80 PA·Brl 15.3%
vs SP: 2-for-9 · .222 · 0 HR · 3 K · 9 PA
15.6%
Brandon Marsh
LHB·2 HR / 66 PA·Brl 6.3%
13.4%
Adolis García
RHB·2 HR / 77 PA·Brl 12.5%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 3 K · 5 PA
13.2%
Rafael Marchán
SHB·1 HR / 22 PA·Brl 5.6%
13.1%
Edmundo Sosa
RHB·1 HR / 27 PA·Brl 5.0%
vs SP: 1-for-11 · .091 · 0 HR · 5 K · 12 PA
12.7%
Dylan Moore
RHB·0 HR / 9 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
12.3%
Otto Kemp
RHB·0 HR / 22 PA·Brl 0.0%
12.1%
Trea Turner
RHB·2 HR / 83 PA·Brl 3.3%
vs SP: 4-for-13 · .308 · 0 HR · 5 K · 15 PA
12.0%
J.T. Realmuto
RHB·1 HR / 55 PA·Brl 2.7%
vs SP: 2-for-13 · .154 · 0 HR · 6 K · 13 PA
11.8%
Bryson Stott
LHB·0 HR / 59 PA·Brl 6.8%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
10.8%
Justin Crawford
LHB·0 HR / 61 PA·Brl 2.4%
10.5%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.