Vol. I · Issue 18
Saturday, April 18, 2026

The Dinger Almanac

··· Baseball Statistics & Analysis ···


Today's Slate/Players/Gunnar Henderson

Gunnar Henderson

BatsLeftThrowsRightAge24Height6'3"Weight230 lbs

Next Game · Sat, Apr 18

@ Cleveland Guardians

10:10 PM
Progressive Field

HR Probability
14.7%
medium confidence

Henderson's 4.4% HR rate grades 37% above league average and anchors the 14.7% projection, though Progressive Field's 96 HR factor and the neutral handedness split (lacking sufficient L/R data) both temper upside slightly.

Facing

Gavin Williams

RHP
ERA
2.38
HR/9
1.20
Game Details

See full lineup analysis, both pitcher profiles, and park factors for this matchup.

Full matchup page →
CaveatsInsufficient handedness split data (using neutral)

2026 Statcast Profile

95 PA

Slash Line
AVG.200
OBP.274
SLG.471
OPS.745
ISO
HR: 6RBI: 14BB: 8K: 27
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
10.7%
Hard-Hit%
50.0%
Avg Exit Velo
91.0 mph
Launch Angle
18.8°
Expected Stats
xwOBA
.319
xISO
.180
K%
BB%

Splits & Recent Form


Handedness Splits
vs LHP
OPS
0 HR in 0 PA
vs RHP
OPS
0 HR in 0 PA
Last 15 Games
5
HRs
OPS
Barrel%
Over 72 PA in the last 15 games

Forecast History


Not enough forecast history yet to chart.

Each dot is a day's forecast. Filled dots mark games where Gunnar Henderson actually homered. Used to gauge whether our model's confidence is calibrated on this player specifically.

Last 15 Games


No recent game data available.
How to Read These Numbers

Percentile bars show where each stat ranks within a reasonable league context, not strict percentiles. Values closer to the right edge are elite; left edge is poor. Read the full methodology for how we build HR probabilities and why most BvP splits aren't used.