Matchup · Saturday, April 18, 2026
Baltimore Orioles
at Cleveland Guardians
6:10 PM ET · 3:10 PM PTProgressive Field, Clevelandopen roof
The Headline
Jeremiah Jackson enters this game with a 15.4% model-estimated probability of homering at Progressive Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor96
RHB HR factor98
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Dean Kremer
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA3.60
WHIP1.20
IP5.0
HR/95.40
K/916.2
xwOBA0.389
Barrel%33.3%
Hard-hit%33.3%
Home Starter · RHP
Gavin Williams
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA2.38
WHIP1.15
IP22.2
HR/91.20
K/911.5
xwOBA0.322
Barrel%13.6%
Hard-hit%45.5%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Baltimore Orioles
Jeremiah Jackson
RHB·5 HR / 62 PA·Brl 13.3%
15.4%
Gunnar Henderson
LHB·6 HR / 95 PA·Brl 11.9%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 1 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
14.7%
Samuel Basallo
LHB·3 HR / 61 PA·Brl 10.5%
13.2%
Weston Wilson
RHB·0 HR / 4 PA·Brl 33.3%
11.9%
Sam Huff
RHB·0 HR / 5 PA·Brl 33.3%
11.8%
Pete Alonso
RHB·2 HR / 88 PA·Brl 7.7%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
11.6%
Johnathan Rodríguez
RHB·0 HR / 8 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.6%
Dylan Beavers
LHB·1 HR / 54 PA·Brl 2.8%
11.2%
Colton Cowser
LHB·0 HR / 49 PA·Brl 9.7%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
10.5%
Blaze Alexander
RHB·0 HR / 50 PA·Brl 3.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
10.5%
Coby Mayo
RHB·0 HR / 55 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA
10.1%
Leody Taveras
SHB·0 HR / 44 PA·Brl 3.7%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
10.0%
Home Lineup
Cleveland Guardians
vs Dean Kremer
José Ramírez
SHB·4 HR / 92 PA·Brl 12.1%
vs SP: 3-for-12 · .250 · 0 HR · 1 K · 13 PA
14.0%
Chase DeLauter
LHB·5 HR / 76 PA·Brl 14.5%
13.6%
Daniel Schneemann
LHB·2 HR / 51 PA·Brl 11.4%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
13.4%
Angel Martínez
SHB·2 HR / 67 PA·Brl 7.8%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
12.3%
Brayan Rocchio
SHB·2 HR / 72 PA·Brl 3.8%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
12.2%
Rhys Hoskins
RHB·1 HR / 56 PA·Brl 13.3%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 1 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
12.1%
Kyle Manzardo
LHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 11.4%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.9%
George Valera
LHB·0 HR / 11 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.8%
David Fry
RHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 13.3%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.1%
Austin Hedges
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.0%
Bo Naylor
LHB·0 HR / 46 PA·Brl 12.1%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
10.7%
Juan Brito
SHB·0 HR / 37 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.5%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.