Vol. I · Issue 18
Saturday, April 18, 2026

The Dinger Almanac

··· Baseball Statistics & Analysis ···


Today's Slate/Players/Jake Bauers

Jake Bauers

BatsLeftThrowsLeftAge30Height6'0"Weight216 lbs

Next Game · Sat, Apr 18

@ Miami Marlins

8:10 PM
loanDepot park

HR Probability
14.5%
medium confidence

Bauers' 4.4% home-run rate per plate appearance grades 38% above league average, but loanDepot park's 91 HR factor and Alcantara's 1.14 HR/9 suppress the upside; the 0-for-11 career mark against this pitcher adds modest friction to an already modest 14.5% projection.

Facing

Sandy Alcantara

RHP
ERA
2.67
HR/9
0.90
Game Details

See full lineup analysis, both pitcher profiles, and park factors for this matchup.

Full matchup page →
CaveatsInsufficient handedness split data (using neutral)

2026 Statcast Profile

66 PA

Slash Line
AVG.254
OBP.333
SLG.525
OPS.858
ISO
HR: 5RBI: 13BB: 7K: 14
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
14.3%
Hard-Hit%
54.8%
Avg Exit Velo
92.5 mph
Launch Angle
6.7°
Expected Stats
xwOBA
.359
xISO
.267
K%
BB%

Splits & Recent Form


Handedness Splits
vs LHP
OPS
0 HR in 0 PA
vs RHP
OPS
0 HR in 0 PA
Last 15 Games
4
HRs
OPS
Barrel%
Over 54 PA in the last 15 games

Forecast History


Not enough forecast history yet to chart.

Each dot is a day's forecast. Filled dots mark games where Jake Bauers actually homered. Used to gauge whether our model's confidence is calibrated on this player specifically.

Last 15 Games


No recent game data available.
How to Read These Numbers

Percentile bars show where each stat ranks within a reasonable league context, not strict percentiles. Values closer to the right edge are elite; left edge is poor. Read the full methodology for how we build HR probabilities and why most BvP splits aren't used.