Matchup · Saturday, April 18, 2026
Milwaukee Brewers
at Miami Marlins
4:10 PM ET · 1:10 PM PTloanDepot park, Miamiretractable roof
The Headline
Gary Sánchez enters this game with a 14.8% model-estimated probability of homering at loanDepot park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor91
RHB HR factor92
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Brandon Woodruff
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA4.32
WHIP1.08
IP16.2
HR/91.60
K/98.6
xwOBA0.271
Barrel%10.2%
Hard-hit%34.7%
Home Starter · RHP
Sandy Alcantara
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA2.67
WHIP0.86
IP30.1
HR/90.90
K/96.5
xwOBA0.242
Barrel%4.6%
Hard-hit%37.9%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Milwaukee Brewers
Gary Sánchez
RHB·5 HR / 47 PA·Brl 21.7%
vs SP: 2-for-12 · .167 · 0 HR · 3 K · 12 PA
14.8%
Jake Bauers
LHB·5 HR / 66 PA·Brl 13.3%
vs SP: 0-for-11 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 12 PA
14.1%
Brice Turang
LHB·3 HR / 79 PA·Brl 10.9%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.2%
William Contreras
RHB·2 HR / 78 PA·Brl 6.8%
vs SP: 1-for-9 · .111 · 0 HR · 3 K · 9 PA
10.9%
Luis Matos
RHB·0 HR / 15 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.6%
Garrett Mitchell
LHB·1 HR / 58 PA·Brl 17.4%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
10.2%
Blake Perkins
SHB·0 HR / 35 PA·Brl 4.5%
9.8%
David Hamilton
LHB·0 HR / 56 PA·Brl 2.9%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
9.3%
Sal Frelick
LHB·1 HR / 73 PA·Brl 2.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
9.1%
Luis Rengifo
SHB·0 HR / 57 PA·Brl 6.8%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
9.1%
Brandon Lockridge
RHB·0 HR / 53 PA·Brl 2.7%
8.6%
Joey Ortiz
RHB·0 HR / 54 PA·Brl 5.3%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
8.2%
Home Lineup
Miami Marlins
Otto Lopez
RHB·3 HR / 80 PA·Brl 15.5%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
12.7%
Liam Hicks
LHB·4 HR / 67 PA·Brl 7.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.2%
Connor Norby
RHB·2 HR / 70 PA·Brl 9.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.8%
Owen Caissie
LHB·2 HR / 60 PA·Brl 20.0%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.3%
Leo Jiménez
RHB·0 HR / 12 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.2%
Austin Slater
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 3-for-3 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.9%
Agustín Ramírez
RHB·1 HR / 79 PA·Brl 5.8%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 5 PA
10.7%
Heriberto Hernández
RHB·0 HR / 56 PA·Brl 5.9%
vs SP: 3-for-5 · .600 · 2 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
10.1%
Xavier Edwards
SHB·1 HR / 85 PA·Brl 6.0%
vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 1 K · 9 PA
9.8%
Graham Pauley
LHB·0 HR / 48 PA·Brl 2.9%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
9.7%
Jakob Marsee
LHB·0 HR / 91 PA·Brl 1.8%
9.1%
Javier Sanoja
RHB·0 HR / 47 PA·Brl 2.6%
8.7%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.