Jeremiah Jackson
@ Cleveland Guardians
Jackson's 4.8% HR rate per plate appearance — 49% above the league average — is the primary lift here, though his 8.5% barrel rate remains modest and Progressive Field's neutral park factor offers no boost. The 15.4% projection reflects solid contact metrics against a pitcher allowing 9.0% barrels, but limited platoon data introduces uncertainty into the matchup-specific edge.
See full lineup analysis, both pitcher profiles, and park factors for this matchup.
2026 Statcast Profile
Splits & Recent Form
Forecast History
Each dot is a day's forecast. Filled dots mark games where Jeremiah Jackson actually homered. Used to gauge whether our model's confidence is calibrated on this player specifically.
Last 15 Games
Percentile bars show where each stat ranks within a reasonable league context, not strict percentiles. Values closer to the right edge are elite; left edge is poor. Read the full methodology for how we build HR probabilities and why most BvP splits aren't used.