Vol. I · Issue 18
Saturday, April 18, 2026

The Dinger Almanac

··· Baseball Statistics & Analysis ···


Today's Slate/Players/Jordan Walker

Jordan Walker

BatsRightThrowsRightAge23Height6'6"Weight250 lbs

Next Game · Sat, Apr 18

@ Houston Astros

11:10 PM
Daikin Park

HR Probability
16.8%
medium confidence

Walker's 5.5% HR rate per PA grades 50% above league average, the primary lift here, while his 14.3% barrel rate sustains that edge; McCullers' 11.4% barrel% allowed and Daikin Park's 106 HR factor provide marginal support to a 16.8% projection.

Facing

Lance McCullers Jr.

RHP
ERA
5.87
HR/9
0.60
Game Details

See full lineup analysis, both pitcher profiles, and park factors for this matchup.

Full matchup page →
CaveatsInsufficient handedness split data (using neutral)

2026 Statcast Profile

80 PA

Slash Line
AVG.315
OBP.375
SLG.685
OPS1.060
ISO
HR: 8RBI: 16BB: 7K: 23
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
22.9%
Hard-Hit%
60.4%
Avg Exit Velo
95.3 mph
Launch Angle
15.7°
Expected Stats
xwOBA
.451
xISO
.404
K%
BB%

Splits & Recent Form


Handedness Splits
vs LHP
OPS
0 HR in 0 PA
vs RHP
OPS
0 HR in 0 PA
Last 15 Games
7
HRs
OPS
Barrel%
Over 64 PA in the last 15 games

Forecast History


14-Day Forecast History
avg 17.1%
0%5%10%15%Apr 17Apr 17Apr 18
HR hitNo HRPending

Each dot is a day's forecast. Filled dots mark games where Jordan Walker actually homered. Used to gauge whether our model's confidence is calibrated on this player specifically.

Last 15 Games


No recent game data available.
How to Read These Numbers

Percentile bars show where each stat ranks within a reasonable league context, not strict percentiles. Values closer to the right edge are elite; left edge is poor. Read the full methodology for how we build HR probabilities and why most BvP splits aren't used.