Matchup · Saturday, April 18, 2026
St. Louis Cardinals
at Houston Astros
7:10 PM ET · 4:10 PM PTDaikin Park, Houstonretractable roof
The Headline
Jordan Walker enters this game with a 16.6% model-estimated probability of homering at Daikin Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor101
RHB HR factor106
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Andre Pallante
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA4.80
WHIP1.53
IP15.0
HR/90.60
K/94.2
xwOBA0.381
Barrel%7.5%
Hard-hit%47.2%
Home Starter · RHP
Lance McCullers Jr.
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA5.87
WHIP1.30
IP15.1
HR/90.60
K/910.0
xwOBA0.334
Barrel%10.5%
Hard-hit%55.3%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
St. Louis Cardinals
Jordan Walker
RHB·8 HR / 80 PA·Brl 24.0%
16.6%
Ramón Urías
RHB·2 HR / 38 PA·Brl 16.0%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
13.3%
Nolan Gorman
LHB·3 HR / 67 PA·Brl 5.3%
12.5%
Iván Herrera
RHB·2 HR / 88 PA·Brl 8.8%
12.3%
JJ Wetherholt
LHB·3 HR / 87 PA·Brl 7.0%
12.0%
Pedro Pagés
RHB·1 HR / 43 PA·Brl 3.1%
11.7%
Alec Burleson
LHB·2 HR / 85 PA·Brl 12.5%
11.5%
Yohel Pozo
RHB·0 HR / 15 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.4%
Nathan Church
LHB·1 HR / 46 PA·Brl 6.5%
11.3%
José Fermín
RHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.2%
Thomas Saggese
RHB·0 HR / 47 PA·Brl 3.4%
10.3%
Masyn Winn
RHB·0 HR / 64 PA·Brl 2.4%
9.8%
Home Lineup
Houston Astros
Yordan Alvarez
LHB·8 HR / 94 PA·Brl 20.6%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
16.3%
Christian Walker
RHB·4 HR / 84 PA·Brl 13.6%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
14.5%
Christian Vázquez
RHB·2 HR / 33 PA·Brl 4.2%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
13.0%
Brice Matthews
RHB·1 HR / 31 PA·Brl 8.3%
12.9%
Cam Smith
RHB·3 HR / 84 PA·Brl 18.5%
12.9%
Jose Altuve
RHB·3 HR / 89 PA·Brl 8.6%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
11.5%
Yainer Diaz
RHB·1 HR / 63 PA·Brl 2.0%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 1 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.2%
Carlos Correa
RHB·1 HR / 78 PA·Brl 10.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.0%
Taylor Trammell
LHB·0 HR / 23 PA·Brl 7.7%
10.8%
Nick Allen
RHB·0 HR / 22 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.6%
Isaac Paredes
RHB·0 HR / 66 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.8%
Joey Loperfido
LHB·0 HR / 66 PA·Brl 5.0%
9.7%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.