Today's Slate/Players/Matt Olson

Atlanta Braves·1B

Matt Olson

BatsLeftThrowsRightAge32Height6'4"Weight225 lbs

Next Game · Sat, Apr 18

@ Philadelphia Phillies

11:15 PM

Citizens Bank Park

HR Probability

15.9%

medium confidence

Olson's 4.3% HR rate per PA grades 35% above baseline, supported by a 16.5% barrel rate that sustains across season and recent splits. Citizens Bank Park's 113 HR factor and Sánchez's modest 1.10 HR/9 play up the case, though the pitcher's below-average home-run yield moderates the overall 15.9% probability.

Facing

Cristopher Sánchez

LHP

ERA

2.01

HR/9

0.40

Game Details

See full lineup analysis, both pitcher profiles, and park factors for this matchup.

Full matchup page →

CaveatsInsufficient handedness split data (using neutral)

2026 Statcast Profile

89 PA

Slash Line

AVG.299

OBP.393

SLG.610

OPS1.003

ISO—

HR: 5RBI: 15BB: 12K: 24

Quality of Contact

Barrel%

21.6%

Hard-Hit%

49.0%

Avg Exit Velo

93.1 mph

Launch Angle

14.6°

Expected Stats

xwOBA

.386

xISO

.349

—

BB%

—

Splits & Recent Form

Handedness Splits

vs LHP

—

OPS

0 HR in 0 PA

vs RHP

—

OPS

0 HR in 0 PA

Last 15 Games

HRs

—

OPS

—

Barrel%

Over 69 PA in the last 15 games

Forecast History

Not enough forecast history yet to chart.

Each dot is a day's forecast. Filled dots mark games where Matt Olson actually homered. Used to gauge whether our model's confidence is calibrated on this player specifically.

Last 15 Games

No recent game data available.

How to Read These Numbers

Percentile bars show where each stat ranks within a reasonable league context, not strict percentiles. Values closer to the right edge are elite; left edge is poor. Read the full methodology for how we build HR probabilities and why most BvP splits aren't used.