Yordan Alvarez
vs St. Louis Cardinals
Alvarez's 4.8% HR rate per PA grades 50% above baseline, while his 16.0% barrel rate sustains that contact quality without recent decline. Pallante's modest 1.14 HR/9 and 6.5% barrel% allowed provide minimal tailwind, tempering what would otherwise project higher given Alvarez's offensive profile.
See full lineup analysis, both pitcher profiles, and park factors for this matchup.
2026 Statcast Profile
Splits & Recent Form
Forecast History
Each dot is a day's forecast. Filled dots mark games where Yordan Alvarez actually homered. Used to gauge whether our model's confidence is calibrated on this player specifically.
Last 15 Games
Percentile bars show where each stat ranks within a reasonable league context, not strict percentiles. Values closer to the right edge are elite; left edge is poor. Read the full methodology for how we build HR probabilities and why most BvP splits aren't used.