Matchup · Tuesday, April 28, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays
at Cleveland Guardians
6:10 PM ET · 3:10 PM PTProgressive Field, Clevelandopen roof
The Headline
Junior Caminero enters this game with a 16.8% model-estimated probability of homering at Progressive Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor96
RHB HR factor98
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Nick Martinez
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA2.10
WHIP1.10
IP30.0
HR/90.90
K/96.0
xwOBA0.340
Barrel%8.5%
Hard-hit%33.0%
Home Starter · RHP
Tanner Bibee
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA4.45
WHIP1.45
IP30.1
HR/91.50
K/97.7
xwOBA0.339
Barrel%8.5%
Hard-hit%53.2%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Tampa Bay Rays
vs Tanner Bibee
Junior Caminero
RHB·8 HR / 126 PA·Brl 11.0%
vs SP: 3-for-9 · .333 · 1 HR · 2 K · 9 PA
16.8%
H 65·K 52
Jonathan Aranda
LHB·7 HR / 124 PA·Brl 11.1%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 1 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
15.3%
H 62·K 69
Jake Fraley
LHB·2 HR / 59 PA·Brl 10.3%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
12.3%
H 63·K 54
Yandy Díaz
RHB·4 HR / 125 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 3-for-10 · .300 · 1 HR · 1 K · 10 PA
12.3%
H 73·K 52
Jonny DeLuca
RHB·2 HR / 63 PA·Brl 6.5%
11.5%
H 65·K 51
Richie Palacios
LHB·1 HR / 51 PA·Brl 6.1%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.4%
H 64·K 45
Ryan Vilade
RHB·0 HR / 35 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.8%
H 65·K 52
Cedric Mullins
LHB·2 HR / 97 PA·Brl 2.9%
vs SP: 0-for-8 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 9 PA
10.3%
H 54·K 46
Hunter Feduccia
LHB·0 HR / 35 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
10.2%
H 63·K 60
Nick Fortes
RHB·1 HR / 77 PA·Brl 1.7%
9.9%
H 66·K 46
Taylor Walls
SHB·0 HR / 65 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
9.3%
H 63·K 59
Ben Williamson
RHB·0 HR / 86 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
9.1%
H 64·K 53
Home Lineup
Cleveland Guardians
Daniel Schneemann
LHB·4 HR / 79 PA·Brl 11.6%
14.1%
H 70·K 69
Angel Martínez
SHB·5 HR / 93 PA·Brl 10.4%
14.0%
H 71·K 58
José Ramírez
SHB·6 HR / 130 PA·Brl 11.4%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
13.8%
H 62·K 42
Brayan Rocchio
SHB·3 HR / 106 PA·Brl 2.5%
vs SP: 0-for-0 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.2%
H 63·K 43
David Fry
RHB·1 HR / 44 PA·Brl 10.0%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.1%
H 63·K 57
Chase DeLauter
LHB·5 HR / 108 PA·Brl 10.1%
11.1%
H 69·K 43
Bo Naylor
LHB·1 HR / 67 PA·Brl 10.9%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
10.9%
H 57·K 50
Kyle Manzardo
LHB·1 HR / 89 PA·Brl 8.3%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA
10.6%
H 63·K 59
Rhys Hoskins
RHB·1 HR / 84 PA·Brl 9.3%
vs SP: 0-for-7 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 9 PA
10.3%
H 61·K 49
Austin Hedges
RHB·0 HR / 39 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 1 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
9.9%
H 62·K 58
George Valera
LHB·0 HR / 37 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.5%
H 64·K 49
Juan Brito
SHB·0 HR / 56 PA·Brl 2.9%
9.1%
H 59·K 58
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.