Mike Trout
vs Toronto Blue Jays
Trout's 4.6% HR rate per plate appearance (1.43× baseline) and 19.3% barrel rate drive this matchup, though Cease's modest 1.06 HR/9 and arsenal heavy on breaking balls (46%) grades the pitcher favorably in a neutral handedness split.
See full lineup analysis, both pitcher profiles, and park factors for this matchup.
2026 Statcast Profile
Splits & Recent Form
Forecast History
Each dot is a day's forecast. Filled dots mark games where Mike Trout actually homered. Used to gauge whether our model's confidence is calibrated on this player specifically.
Last 15 Games
Percentile bars show where each stat ranks within a reasonable league context, not strict percentiles. Values closer to the right edge are elite; left edge is poor. Read the full methodology for how we build HR probabilities and why most BvP splits aren't used.