Matchup · Monday, April 20, 2026
Toronto Blue Jays
at Los Angeles Angels
9:38 PM ET · 6:38 PM PTAngel Stadium, Anaheimopen roof
The Headline
Mike Trout enters this game with a 15.0% model-estimated probability of homering at Angel Stadium, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor96
RHB HR factor97
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Dylan Cease
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA1.74
WHIP1.26
IP20.2
HR/90.00
K/913.9
xwOBA0.272
Barrel%0.0%
Hard-hit%29.5%
Home Starter · LHP
Reid Detmers
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA3.57
WHIP1.06
IP22.2
HR/90.40
K/910.3
xwOBA0.257
Barrel%6.7%
Hard-hit%38.3%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Toronto Blue Jays
vs Reid Detmers
Daulton Varsho
LHB·3 HR / 72 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.9%
Brandon Valenzuela
SHB·1 HR / 24 PA·Brl 7.7%
11.7%
Davis Schneider
RHB·1 HR / 38 PA·Brl 21.1%
11.7%
Myles Straw
RHB·1 HR / 25 PA·Brl 4.5%
vs SP: 4-for-10 · .400 · 0 HR · 1 K · 11 PA
11.5%
Andrés Giménez
LHB·3 HR / 78 PA·Brl 4.8%
vs SP: 2-for-10 · .200 · 0 HR · 1 K · 12 PA
11.3%
Jesús Sánchez
LHB·2 HR / 68 PA·Brl 5.9%
11.1%
Eloy Jiménez
RHB·0 HR / 13 PA·Brl 11.1%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
11.0%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
RHB·1 HR / 86 PA·Brl 12.7%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 0 K · 8 PA
10.7%
Lenyn Sosa
RHB·0 HR / 45 PA·Brl 2.6%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 1 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
10.0%
Tyler Heineman
SHB·0 HR / 30 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA
9.9%
Kazuma Okamoto
RHB·2 HR / 80 PA·Brl 6.5%
9.9%
Nathan Lukes
LHB·0 HR / 40 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
9.7%
Home Lineup
Los Angeles Angels
vs Dylan Cease
Mike Trout
RHB·7 HR / 98 PA·Brl 26.3%
vs SP: 1-for-9 · .111 · 0 HR · 6 K · 9 PA
15.0%
Jorge Soler
RHB·5 HR / 79 PA·Brl 14.6%
vs SP: 1-for-23 · .043 · 0 HR · 13 K · 27 PA
13.8%
Zach Neto
RHB·5 HR / 104 PA·Brl 11.9%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 2 HR · 3 K · 5 PA
12.8%
Oswald Peraza
RHB·4 HR / 68 PA·Brl 8.9%
12.8%
Yoán Moncada
SHB·3 HR / 75 PA·Brl 8.3%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.5%
Jo Adell
RHB·3 HR / 95 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 6 PA
12.4%
Josh Lowe
LHB·3 HR / 64 PA·Brl 7.9%
vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 2 K · 8 PA
11.7%
Logan O'Hoppe
RHB·1 HR / 74 PA·Brl 10.6%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
10.6%
Travis d'Arnaud
RHB·0 HR / 15 PA·Brl 20.0%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 1 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
10.6%
Adam Frazier
LHB·1 HR / 39 PA·Brl 4.3%
vs SP: 5-for-17 · .294 · 0 HR · 2 K · 18 PA
10.5%
Bryce Teodosio
RHB·0 HR / 21 PA·Brl 8.3%
10.1%
Vaughn Grissom
RHB·0 HR / 21 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.9%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.