Vol. I · Issue 20
Monday, April 20, 2026

The Dinger Almanac

··· Baseball Statistics & Analysis ···


Today's Slate/Players/Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernández

BatsRightThrowsRightAge33Height6'0"Weight215 lbs

Next Game · Mon, Apr 20

@ Colorado Rockies

8:40 PM ET · 5:40 PM PT
Coors Field

HR Probability
16.2%
low

Hernández's 4.1% home-run rate grades 27% above average, amplified by Coors Field's 122 HR factor at a 22% boost; his consistent 12.1% barrel rate across season and recent splits reinforces the profile. Quintana's thin 8-inning sample and lack of handedness splits temper conviction here.

Facing

Jose Quintana

LHP
ERA
5.63
HR/9
1.10
Game Details

See full lineup analysis, both pitcher profiles, and park factors for this matchup.

Full matchup page →
CaveatsSmall sample for Jose Quintana (8 IP) · Insufficient handedness split data (using neutral)

2026 Statcast Profile

72 PA

Slash Line
AVG.273
OBP.319
SLG.500
OPS.819
ISO
HR: 4RBI: 12BB: 5K: 23
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
13.6%
Hard-Hit%
38.6%
Avg Exit Velo
89.9 mph
Launch Angle
11.5°
Expected Stats
xwOBA
.326
xISO
.201
K%
BB%

Splits & Recent Form


Handedness Splits
vs LHP
OPS
0 HR in 0 PA
vs RHP
OPS
0 HR in 0 PA
Last 15 Games
4
HRs
OPS
Barrel%
Over 62 PA in the last 15 games

Forecast History


14-Day Forecast History
avg 16.9%
0%5%10%15%Apr 17Apr 18Apr 20
HR hitNo HRPending

Each dot is a day's forecast. Filled dots mark games where Teoscar Hernández actually homered. Used to gauge whether our model's confidence is calibrated on this player specifically.

Last 15 Games


DateOppPAHHRK
Sun, Apr 19@ COL000
Sun, Apr 19@ COL000
Sat, Apr 18@ COL401
Sat, Apr 18@ COL401
Sat, Apr 18@ COL401
Sat, Apr 18@ COL401
Sat, Apr 18@ COL401
How to Read These Numbers

Percentile bars show where each stat ranks within a reasonable league context, not strict percentiles. Values closer to the right edge are elite; left edge is poor. Read the full methodology for how we build HR probabilities and why most BvP splits aren't used.