Matchup · Monday, April 20, 2026
Los Angeles Dodgers
at Colorado Rockies
8:40 PM ET · 5:40 PM PTCoors Field, Denveropen roof
The Headline
Max Muncy enters this game with a 17.8% model-estimated probability of homering at Coors Field, one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor118
RHB HR factor122
Altitude5,200 ft
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Justin Wrobleski
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA2.12
WHIP0.76
IP17.0
HR/90.00
K/93.2
xwOBA0.316
Barrel%3.8%
Hard-hit%32.7%
Home Starter · LHP
Jose Quintana
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA5.63
WHIP1.88
IP8.0
HR/91.10
K/93.4
xwOBA0.444
Barrel%19.2%
Hard-hit%26.9%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Los Angeles Dodgers
Max Muncy
LHB·6 HR / 75 PA·Brl 19.0%
vs SP: 2-for-9 · .222 · 1 HR · 4 K · 13 PA
17.8%
Dalton Rushing
LHB·5 HR / 22 PA·Brl 26.7%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
17.3%
Shohei Ohtani
LHB·5 HR / 92 PA·Brl 22.2%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 1 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
17.0%
Andy Pages
RHB·5 HR / 79 PA·Brl 9.6%
vs SP: 4-for-8 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 8 PA
16.2%
Teoscar Hernández
RHB·4 HR / 72 PA·Brl 13.6%
vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
16.2%
Freddie Freeman
LHB·3 HR / 89 PA·Brl 18.3%
vs SP: 5-for-20 · .250 · 1 HR · 6 K · 26 PA
14.8%
Kyle Tucker
LHB·3 HR / 90 PA·Brl 8.5%
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 1 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
14.3%
Hyeseong Kim
LHB·1 HR / 28 PA·Brl 13.3%
13.2%
Will Smith
RHB·2 HR / 70 PA·Brl 11.8%
vs SP: 2-for-12 · .167 · 1 HR · 2 K · 12 PA
12.6%
Alex Call
RHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
12.6%
Santiago Espinal
RHB·0 HR / 15 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 4-for-9 · .444 · 0 HR · 0 K · 10 PA
12.3%
Alex Freeland
SHB·1 HR / 57 PA·Brl 8.6%
11.9%
Home Lineup
Colorado Rockies
Mickey Moniak
LHB·6 HR / 59 PA·Brl 13.5%
16.5%
Hunter Goodman
RHB·5 HR / 83 PA·Brl 12.8%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
15.6%
Jordan Beck
RHB·1 HR / 44 PA·Brl 3.1%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
12.3%
Edouard Julien
LHB·1 HR / 62 PA·Brl 8.8%
12.2%
Brenton Doyle
RHB·1 HR / 66 PA·Brl 2.8%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
12.1%
Troy Johnston
LHB·2 HR / 69 PA·Brl 4.3%
12.0%
Willi Castro
SHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 9.4%
11.8%
Brett Sullivan
LHB·0 HR / 30 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.8%
TJ Rumfield
LHB·2 HR / 83 PA·Brl 6.9%
11.8%
Ezequiel Tovar
RHB·1 HR / 85 PA·Brl 10.5%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.0%
Tyler Freeman
RHB·0 HR / 40 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.9%
Kyle Karros
RHB·1 HR / 71 PA·Brl 5.0%
10.7%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.