Matchup · Sunday, April 19, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays
at Pittsburgh Pirates
1:35 PM EDTPNC Park, Pittsburghopen roof
The Headline
Brandon Lowe enters this game with a 14.5% model-estimated probability of homering at PNC Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor93
RHB HR factor97
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Shane McClanahan
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA3.95
WHIP1.17
IP13.2
HR/90.70
K/98.6
xwOBA0.337
Barrel%11.8%
Hard-hit%47.1%
Home Starter · RHP
Mitch Keller
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA2.86
WHIP1.23
IP22.0
HR/90.40
K/95.7
xwOBA0.318
Barrel%3.0%
Hard-hit%37.9%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Tampa Bay Rays
vs Mitch Keller
Junior Caminero
RHB·4 HR / 93 PA·Brl 8.8%
13.3%
Jonny DeLuca
RHB·2 HR / 42 PA·Brl 6.7%
11.8%
Yandy Díaz
RHB·3 HR / 92 PA·Brl 6.1%
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
11.3%
Richie Palacios
LHB·1 HR / 36 PA·Brl 9.1%
11.0%
Jonathan Aranda
LHB·3 HR / 91 PA·Brl 9.4%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.9%
Nick Fortes
RHB·1 HR / 59 PA·Brl 2.2%
vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 1 HR · 2 K · 9 PA
10.5%
Ryan Vilade
RHB·0 HR / 25 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.5%
Hunter Feduccia
LHB·0 HR / 25 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.1%
Jake Fraley
LHB·1 HR / 48 PA·Brl 6.3%
vs SP: 5-for-17 · .294 · 0 HR · 2 K · 19 PA
10.0%
Cedric Mullins
LHB·2 HR / 75 PA·Brl 2.0%
vs SP: 3-for-6 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
9.9%
Taylor Walls
SHB·0 HR / 41 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
9.3%
Ben Williamson
RHB·0 HR / 65 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.2%
Home Lineup
Pittsburgh Pirates
Brandon Lowe
LHB·7 HR / 88 PA·Brl 13.2%
14.5%
Oneil Cruz
LHB·6 HR / 95 PA·Brl 21.2%
13.8%
Joey Bart
RHB·1 HR / 32 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.9%
Ryan O'Hearn
LHB·4 HR / 84 PA·Brl 8.9%
11.9%
Bryan Reynolds
SHB·3 HR / 93 PA·Brl 10.0%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
11.3%
Marcell Ozuna
RHB·2 HR / 71 PA·Brl 6.7%
11.0%
Spencer Horwitz
LHB·1 HR / 66 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.5%
Henry Davis
RHB·0 HR / 51 PA·Brl 6.5%
10.2%
Konnor Griffin
RHB·0 HR / 58 PA·Brl 9.4%
10.0%
Jake Mangum
SHB·0 HR / 47 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.7%
Nick Gonzales
RHB·0 HR / 66 PA·Brl 2.1%
9.5%
Nick Yorke
RHB·0 HR / 63 PA·Brl 5.3%
9.5%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.