Matchup · Monday, April 20, 2026
Cincinnati Reds
at Tampa Bay Rays
6:40 PM ET · 3:40 PM PTTropicana Field, St. Petersburgdome roof
The Headline
Junior Caminero enters this game with a 13.2% model-estimated probability of homering at Tropicana Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor93
RHB HR factor95
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Rhett Lowder
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA3.52
WHIP1.13
IP23.0
HR/90.40
K/95.9
xwOBA0.331
Barrel%8.3%
Hard-hit%38.9%
Home Starter
Starter not yet announced.
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Cincinnati Reds
Sal Stewart
RHB·7 HR / 89 PA·Brl 22.0%
—
Elly De La Cruz
SHB·6 HR / 93 PA·Brl 16.7%
—
Eugenio Suárez
RHB·3 HR / 82 PA·Brl 9.8%
—
Spencer Steer
RHB·3 HR / 69 PA·Brl 15.6%
—
Tyler Stephenson
RHB·2 HR / 55 PA·Brl 12.9%
—
Dane Myers
RHB·0 HR / 29 PA·Brl 4.8%
—
Ke'Bryan Hayes
RHB·0 HR / 54 PA·Brl 6.5%
—
Matt McLain
RHB·0 HR / 87 PA·Brl 8.0%
—
Nathaniel Lowe
LHB·0 HR / 30 PA·Brl 5.0%
—
P.J. Higgins
RHB·0 HR / 9 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Rece Hinds
RHB·0 HR / 14 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
TJ Friedl
LHB·0 HR / 87 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Home Lineup
Tampa Bay Rays
vs Rhett Lowder
Junior Caminero
RHB·4 HR / 93 PA·Brl 9.4%
13.2%
Jonny DeLuca
RHB·2 HR / 42 PA·Brl 8.8%
11.7%
Yandy Díaz
RHB·3 HR / 92 PA·Brl 5.9%
11.3%
Jonathan Aranda
LHB·3 HR / 91 PA·Brl 8.9%
11.0%
Richie Palacios
LHB·1 HR / 36 PA·Brl 8.3%
11.0%
Cedric Mullins
LHB·2 HR / 75 PA·Brl 3.8%
10.8%
Jake Fraley
LHB·1 HR / 48 PA·Brl 6.1%
10.5%
Ryan Vilade
RHB·0 HR / 25 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.4%
Nick Fortes
RHB·1 HR / 59 PA·Brl 2.1%
10.3%
Hunter Feduccia
LHB·0 HR / 25 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.1%
Taylor Walls
SHB·0 HR / 41 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.3%
Ben Williamson
RHB·0 HR / 65 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.0%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.