Matchup · Monday, April 20, 2026
St. Louis Cardinals
at Miami Marlins
6:40 PM ET · 3:40 PM PTloanDepot park, Miamiretractable roof
The Headline
Jordan Walker enters this game with a 15.4% model-estimated probability of homering at loanDepot park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor91
RHB HR factor92
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Michael McGreevy
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA2.49
WHIP0.83
IP21.2
HR/91.30
K/95.0
xwOBA0.415
Barrel%14.9%
Hard-hit%38.8%
Home Starter · RHP
Max Meyer
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA4.12
WHIP1.32
IP19.2
HR/90.90
K/99.2
xwOBA0.360
Barrel%10.2%
Hard-hit%42.4%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
St. Louis Cardinals
vs Max Meyer
Jordan Walker
RHB·8 HR / 85 PA·Brl 23.1%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
15.4%
Ramón Urías
RHB·2 HR / 42 PA·Brl 14.3%
12.3%
Alec Burleson
LHB·3 HR / 90 PA·Brl 13.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.8%
José Fermín
RHB·1 HR / 21 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.7%
Iván Herrera
RHB·2 HR / 93 PA·Brl 8.5%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.4%
JJ Wetherholt
LHB·3 HR / 92 PA·Brl 6.8%
11.3%
Nolan Gorman
LHB·3 HR / 72 PA·Brl 4.7%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 1 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.2%
Pedro Pagés
RHB·1 HR / 43 PA·Brl 3.1%
10.8%
Nathan Church
LHB·1 HR / 50 PA·Brl 6.1%
10.7%
Yohel Pozo
RHB·0 HR / 15 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.6%
Masyn Winn
RHB·1 HR / 69 PA·Brl 4.5%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.3%
Thomas Saggese
RHB·0 HR / 47 PA·Brl 3.4%
9.6%
Home Lineup
Miami Marlins
Otto Lopez
RHB·3 HR / 84 PA·Brl 14.5%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.7%
Kyle Stowers
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.9%
Connor Norby
RHB·2 HR / 74 PA·Brl 8.5%
11.8%
Owen Caissie
LHB·2 HR / 64 PA·Brl 18.8%
11.7%
Liam Hicks
LHB·4 HR / 71 PA·Brl 6.6%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
11.5%
Leo Jiménez
RHB·0 HR / 12 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.1%
Austin Slater
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.8%
Agustín Ramírez
RHB·1 HR / 83 PA·Brl 5.5%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
10.6%
Xavier Edwards
SHB·1 HR / 89 PA·Brl 5.7%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.0%
Heriberto Hernández
RHB·0 HR / 60 PA·Brl 5.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
9.9%
Graham Pauley
LHB·0 HR / 48 PA·Brl 2.9%
9.7%
Javier Sanoja
RHB·0 HR / 51 PA·Brl 2.4%
9.5%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.