Matchup · Tuesday, April 21, 2026
Cincinnati Reds
at Tampa Bay Rays
6:40 PM ET · 3:40 PM PTTropicana Field, St. Petersburgdome roof
The Headline
Sal Stewart enters this game with a 15.7% model-estimated probability of homering at Tropicana Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor93
RHB HR factor95
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Chase Burns
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA2.42
WHIP1.07
IP22.1
HR/91.20
K/98.9
xwOBA0.314
Barrel%10.5%
Hard-hit%40.4%
Home Starter · LHP
Steven Matz
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA3.80
WHIP1.03
IP21.1
HR/90.80
K/98.9
xwOBA0.334
Barrel%10.5%
Hard-hit%42.1%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Cincinnati Reds
vs Steven Matz
Sal Stewart
RHB·8 HR / 98 PA·Brl 22.2%
15.7%
Elly De La Cruz
SHB·6 HR / 102 PA·Brl 15.5%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 1 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
13.5%
Tyler Stephenson
RHB·2 HR / 63 PA·Brl 12.1%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA
12.2%
Spencer Steer
RHB·3 HR / 78 PA·Brl 15.2%
vs SP: 3-for-6 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
11.9%
Eugenio Suárez
RHB·3 HR / 91 PA·Brl 9.4%
vs SP: 5-for-12 · .417 · 0 HR · 5 K · 13 PA
11.1%
Rece Hinds
RHB·0 HR / 23 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.8%
Will Benson
LHB·0 HR / 38 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-0 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
10.4%
Dane Myers
RHB·0 HR / 32 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.4%
Nathaniel Lowe
LHB·0 HR / 30 PA·Brl 5.0%
vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 3 K · 8 PA
9.9%
Ke'Bryan Hayes
RHB·0 HR / 60 PA·Brl 6.4%
vs SP: 3-for-8 · .375 · 1 HR · 0 K · 9 PA
9.6%
Matt McLain
RHB·0 HR / 97 PA·Brl 9.4%
vs SP: 3-for-6 · .500 · 1 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
9.2%
TJ Friedl
LHB·0 HR / 97 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
8.4%
Home Lineup
Tampa Bay Rays
vs Chase Burns
Junior Caminero
RHB·5 HR / 101 PA·Brl 10.3%
14.6%
Jonny DeLuca
RHB·2 HR / 45 PA·Brl 8.3%
12.3%
Jonathan Aranda
LHB·3 HR / 99 PA·Brl 8.5%
11.4%
Richie Palacios
LHB·1 HR / 43 PA·Brl 8.0%
11.3%
Cedric Mullins
LHB·2 HR / 83 PA·Brl 3.6%
11.2%
Yandy Díaz
RHB·3 HR / 100 PA·Brl 5.6%
11.2%
Ryan Vilade
RHB·0 HR / 25 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.9%
Jake Fraley
LHB·1 HR / 52 PA·Brl 6.1%
10.9%
Nick Fortes
RHB·1 HR / 63 PA·Brl 2.1%
10.8%
Hunter Feduccia
LHB·0 HR / 28 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.5%
Taylor Walls
SHB·0 HR / 48 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.6%
Ben Williamson
RHB·0 HR / 65 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.5%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.