Matchup · Tuesday, April 21, 2026
Minnesota Twins
at New York Mets
7:10 PM ET · 4:10 PM PTCiti Field, Flushingopen roof
The Headline
Francisco Alvarez enters this game with a 14.5% model-estimated probability of homering at Citi Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor95
RHB HR factor96
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Simeon Woods Richardson
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA6.10
WHIP1.60
IP20.2
HR/91.70
K/94.8
xwOBA0.343
Barrel%9.5%
Hard-hit%43.2%
Home Starter · RHP
Nolan McLean
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA2.28
WHIP0.76
IP23.2
HR/90.40
K/910.7
xwOBA0.230
Barrel%5.8%
Hard-hit%30.8%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Minnesota Twins
vs Nolan McLean
Ryan Kreidler
RHB·2 HR / 18 PA·Brl 18.2%
13.3%
Byron Buxton
RHB·3 HR / 90 PA·Brl 13.6%
12.5%
Tristan Gray
LHB·2 HR / 41 PA·Brl 13.0%
12.5%
Kody Clemens
LHB·2 HR / 45 PA·Brl 21.7%
12.4%
Brooks Lee
SHB·3 HR / 70 PA·Brl 3.8%
12.2%
Matt Wallner
LHB·3 HR / 81 PA·Brl 10.5%
12.0%
Ryan Jeffers
RHB·2 HR / 65 PA·Brl 13.6%
11.5%
Josh Bell
SHB·3 HR / 88 PA·Brl 10.2%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
11.2%
Trevor Larnach
LHB·1 HR / 47 PA·Brl 11.1%
10.9%
Austin Martin
RHB·1 HR / 62 PA·Brl 5.6%
10.6%
James Outman
LHB·0 HR / 24 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.6%
Victor Caratini
SHB·1 HR / 76 PA·Brl 5.4%
10.3%
Home Lineup
New York Mets
Francisco Alvarez
RHB·4 HR / 68 PA·Brl 18.2%
14.5%
MJ Melendez
LHB·1 HR / 16 PA·Brl 33.3%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
12.9%
Mark Vientos
RHB·2 HR / 57 PA·Brl 4.7%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.7%
Jorge Polanco
SHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
12.4%
Hayden Senger
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.3%
Tyrone Taylor
RHB·1 HR / 30 PA·Brl 8.0%
12.2%
Tommy Pham
RHB·0 HR / 8 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 1 HR · 0 K · 7 PA
11.9%
Luis Robert Jr.
RHB·2 HR / 82 PA·Brl 3.7%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 5 PA
11.4%
Luis Torrens
RHB·0 HR / 23 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.3%
Marcus Semien
RHB·1 HR / 86 PA·Brl 6.5%
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 1 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
11.1%
Francisco Lindor
SHB·1 HR / 99 PA·Brl 8.6%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
10.9%
Bo Bichette
RHB·1 HR / 98 PA·Brl 2.9%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 1 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
10.7%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.