Matchup · Tuesday, April 21, 2026
St. Louis Cardinals
at Miami Marlins
6:40 PM ET · 3:40 PM PTloanDepot park, Miamiretractable roof
The Headline
Jordan Walker enters this game with a 16.2% model-estimated probability of homering at loanDepot park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor91
RHB HR factor92
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Dustin May
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA6.98
WHIP1.60
IP19.1
HR/90.90
K/97.0
xwOBA0.329
Barrel%6.3%
Hard-hit%46.0%
Home Starter · RHP
Chris Paddack
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA5.59
WHIP1.45
IP19.1
HR/91.90
K/98.4
xwOBA0.316
Barrel%7.9%
Hard-hit%46.0%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
St. Louis Cardinals
Jordan Walker
RHB·8 HR / 94 PA·Brl 23.6%
16.2%
Ramón Urías
RHB·2 HR / 47 PA·Brl 14.3%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.8%
Alec Burleson
LHB·3 HR / 99 PA·Brl 12.5%
12.3%
José Fermín
RHB·1 HR / 25 PA·Brl 0.0%
12.0%
Iván Herrera
RHB·2 HR / 102 PA·Brl 8.1%
11.8%
JJ Wetherholt
LHB·3 HR / 101 PA·Brl 6.6%
11.7%
Nolan Gorman
LHB·3 HR / 80 PA·Brl 4.3%
11.6%
Pedro Pagés
RHB·1 HR / 48 PA·Brl 2.9%
11.2%
Nathan Church
LHB·1 HR / 53 PA·Brl 5.9%
11.2%
Yohel Pozo
RHB·0 HR / 16 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.0%
Masyn Winn
RHB·1 HR / 78 PA·Brl 4.3%
10.6%
Thomas Saggese
RHB·0 HR / 51 PA·Brl 3.4%
9.9%
Home Lineup
Miami Marlins
vs Dustin May
Otto Lopez
RHB·3 HR / 92 PA·Brl 13.6%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.8%
Connor Norby
RHB·2 HR / 81 PA·Brl 8.5%
11.6%
Owen Caissie
LHB·2 HR / 72 PA·Brl 17.6%
11.5%
Kyle Stowers
LHB·0 HR / 8 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.4%
Liam Hicks
LHB·4 HR / 79 PA·Brl 6.3%
11.2%
Agustín Ramírez
RHB·2 HR / 91 PA·Brl 5.2%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.0%
Leo Jiménez
RHB·0 HR / 12 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.9%
Austin Slater
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
10.6%
Heriberto Hernández
RHB·0 HR / 60 PA·Brl 5.3%
9.8%
Graham Pauley
LHB·0 HR / 53 PA·Brl 2.9%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
9.4%
Javier Sanoja
RHB·0 HR / 53 PA·Brl 2.3%
9.3%
Xavier Edwards
SHB·1 HR / 98 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
9.1%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.