Matchup · Friday, April 24, 2026

Cleveland Guardians
at Toronto Blue Jays

7:07 PM ET · 4:07 PM PTRogers Centre, Torontoretractable roof

The Headline

José Ramírez enters this game with a 16.4% model-estimated probability of homering at Rogers Centre, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor107

RHB HR factor105

Probable Starters

Away Starter · RHP

Gavin Williams

HR VulnerabilityAverage

Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled

ERA2.12

WHIP1.01

IP29.2

HR/91.20

K/912.1

xwOBA0.300

Barrel%13.8%

Hard-hit%48.3%

Home Starter · RHP

Max Scherzer

HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone

Contact Quality AllowedBelow average

ERA7.16

WHIP1.29

IP16.1

HR/92.20

K/95.5

xwOBA0.382

Barrel%11.5%

Hard-hit%34.6%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Cleveland Guardians

vs Max Scherzer

José Ramírez

SHB·6 HR / 113 PA·Brl 12.8%

vs SP: 2-for-11 · .182 · 0 HR · 2 K · 12 PA

16.4%

H 67·K 52

Daniel Schneemann

LHB·2 HR / 66 PA·Brl 10.3%

vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

14.2%

H 66·K 67

Angel Martínez

SHB·3 HR / 76 PA·Brl 8.8%

14.1%

H 62·K 55

Brayan Rocchio

SHB·3 HR / 91 PA·Brl 2.9%

13.6%

H 71·K 51

Chase DeLauter

LHB·5 HR / 94 PA·Brl 11.3%

13.2%

H 62·K 51

Bo Naylor

LHB·1 HR / 59 PA·Brl 12.2%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

12.8%

H 58·K 57

Kyle Manzardo

LHB·1 HR / 81 PA·Brl 9.5%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

12.4%

H 61·K 70

Rhys Hoskins

RHB·1 HR / 69 PA·Brl 10.8%

vs SP: 2-for-30 · .067 · 0 HR · 15 K · 31 PA

12.3%

H 63·K 65

George Valera

LHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 0.0%

11.7%

H 59·K 60

David Fry

RHB·0 HR / 35 PA·Brl 11.8%

11.5%

H 65·K 70

Austin Hedges

RHB·0 HR / 33 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 3 K · 7 PA

11.2%

H 60·K 62

Steven Kwan

LHB·1 HR / 112 PA·Brl 1.1%

vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA

10.9%

H 59·K 51

Home Lineup

Toronto Blue Jays

vs Gavin Williams

Daulton Varsho

LHB·3 HR / 84 PA·Brl 4.8%

vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 5 PA

14.1%

H 62·K 62

Brandon Valenzuela

SHB·1 HR / 32 PA·Brl 5.3%

12.4%

H 55·K 77

Jesús Sánchez

LHB·2 HR / 80 PA·Brl 6.8%

12.3%

H 63·K 62

Myles Straw

RHB·1 HR / 35 PA·Brl 3.4%

12.2%

H 63·K 58

Kazuma Okamoto

RHB·3 HR / 97 PA·Brl 9.1%

12.0%

H 62·K 73

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

RHB·2 HR / 103 PA·Brl 11.8%

vs SP: 3-for-8 · .375 · 1 HR · 3 K · 9 PA

12.0%

H 70·K 60

Davis Schneider

RHB·1 HR / 42 PA·Brl 19.0%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA

11.8%

H 60·K 75

Andrés Giménez

LHB·3 HR / 92 PA·Brl 4.1%

vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA

11.7%

H 58·K 59

Eloy Jiménez

RHB·0 HR / 26 PA·Brl 5.3%

vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

11.3%

H 63·K 68

Lenyn Sosa

RHB·0 HR / 53 PA·Brl 4.5%

vs SP: 4-for-6 · .667 · 2 HR · 0 K · 7 PA

10.9%

H 62·K 58

Tyler Heineman

SHB·0 HR / 37 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA

10.7%

H 61·K 68

Nathan Lukes

LHB·0 HR / 55 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA

10.5%

H 67·K 58

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.