Matchup · Friday, April 24, 2026

Minnesota Twins
at Tampa Bay Rays

7:10 PM ET · 4:10 PM PTTropicana Field, St. Petersburgdome roof

The Headline

Byron Buxton enters this game with a 15.6% model-estimated probability of homering at Tropicana Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor93

RHB HR factor95

Probable Starters

Away Starter · RHP

Taj Bradley

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression

ERA1.63

WHIP1.23

IP27.2

HR/90.00

K/911.1

xwOBA0.290

Barrel%4.2%

Hard-hit%45.8%

Home Starter · RHP

Drew Rasmussen

HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone

Contact Quality AllowedBelow average

ERA2.75

WHIP0.66

IP19.2

HR/91.80

K/99.2

xwOBA0.269

Barrel%11.8%

Hard-hit%39.2%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Minnesota Twins

vs Drew Rasmussen

Byron Buxton

RHB·5 HR / 106 PA·Brl 15.6%

vs SP: 3-for-5 · .600 · 3 HR · 2 K · 5 PA

15.6%

H 60·K 69

Tristan Gray

LHB·3 HR / 46 PA·Brl 13.0%

13.3%

H 62·K 73

Kody Clemens

LHB·2 HR / 57 PA·Brl 17.2%

vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 5 PA

12.9%

H 62·K 73

Brooks Lee

SHB·3 HR / 83 PA·Brl 3.6%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

12.8%

H 56·K 58

Royce Lewis

RHB·2 HR / 53 PA·Brl 11.1%

vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA

12.7%

H 61·K 73

Ryan Jeffers

RHB·3 HR / 75 PA·Brl 13.3%

vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 4 PA

12.3%

H 63·K 58

Matt Wallner

LHB·3 HR / 89 PA·Brl 9.3%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

11.9%

H 61·K 73

Josh Bell

SHB·3 HR / 101 PA·Brl 9.1%

vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA

11.9%

H 65·K 54

Austin Martin

RHB·1 HR / 68 PA·Brl 5.6%

11.5%

H 63·K 58

Trevor Larnach

LHB·1 HR / 60 PA·Brl 9.4%

vs SP: 3-for-7 · .429 · 0 HR · 1 K · 8 PA

11.5%

H 63·K 58

James Outman

LHB·0 HR / 24 PA·Brl 0.0%

11.4%

H 61·K 64

Victor Caratini

SHB·1 HR / 80 PA·Brl 5.1%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA

11.0%

H 60·K 54

Home Lineup

Tampa Bay Rays

vs Taj Bradley

Junior Caminero

RHB·6 HR / 110 PA·Brl 10.1%

14.1%

H 66·K 61

Jonathan Aranda

LHB·4 HR / 108 PA·Brl 9.5%

11.3%

H 63·K 70

Jonny DeLuca

RHB·2 HR / 53 PA·Brl 7.3%

11.2%

H 64·K 65

Cedric Mullins

LHB·2 HR / 85 PA·Brl 3.3%

vs SP: 2-for-7 · .286 · 1 HR · 4 K · 7 PA

10.2%

H 58·K 60

Richie Palacios

LHB·1 HR / 48 PA·Brl 6.5%

10.2%

H 63·K 57

Yandy Díaz

RHB·3 HR / 108 PA·Brl 5.0%

10.2%

H 65·K 56

Jake Fraley

LHB·1 HR / 53 PA·Brl 8.6%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA

10.1%

H 62·K 68

Ryan Vilade

RHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 0.0%

9.8%

H 63·K 64

Nick Fortes

RHB·1 HR / 67 PA·Brl 1.9%

vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

9.8%

H 66·K 61

Hunter Feduccia

LHB·0 HR / 32 PA·Brl 0.0%

9.5%

H 62·K 76

Taylor Walls

SHB·0 HR / 55 PA·Brl 0.0%

8.8%

H 57·K 70

Ben Williamson

RHB·0 HR / 70 PA·Brl 0.0%

8.6%

H 63·K 64

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.