Matchup · Saturday, April 25, 2026
Cleveland Guardians
at Toronto Blue Jays
3:07 PM ET · 12:07 PM PTRogers Centre, Torontoretractable roof
The Headline
Angel Martínez enters this game with a 15.0% model-estimated probability of homering at Rogers Centre, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor107
RHB HR factor105
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Joey Cantillo
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA3.20
WHIP1.30
IP25.1
HR/91.10
K/910.7
xwOBA0.307
Barrel%11.7%
Hard-hit%43.3%
Home Starter · RHP
Kevin Gausman
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA2.54
WHIP0.95
IP28.1
HR/90.60
K/911.1
xwOBA0.284
Barrel%9.7%
Hard-hit%38.9%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Cleveland Guardians
Angel Martínez
SHB·5 HR / 80 PA·Brl 8.8%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
15.0%
H 65·K 65
José Ramírez
SHB·6 HR / 118 PA·Brl 12.8%
vs SP: 4-for-24 · .167 · 0 HR · 7 K · 26 PA
14.7%
H 66·K 57
Daniel Schneemann
LHB·3 HR / 71 PA·Brl 10.3%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 1 K · 7 PA
14.1%
H 64·K 76
Chase DeLauter
LHB·5 HR / 99 PA·Brl 11.3%
12.0%
H 57·K 56
Brayan Rocchio
SHB·3 HR / 95 PA·Brl 2.9%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
11.8%
H 69·K 56
Bo Naylor
LHB·1 HR / 63 PA·Brl 12.2%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 5 PA
11.7%
H 56·K 64
Kyle Manzardo
LHB·1 HR / 86 PA·Brl 9.5%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 3 K · 5 PA
11.4%
H 59·K 76
Rhys Hoskins
RHB·1 HR / 74 PA·Brl 10.8%
vs SP: 3-for-16 · .188 · 0 HR · 5 K · 19 PA
11.3%
H 61·K 73
George Valera
LHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.6%
H 57·K 58
David Fry
RHB·0 HR / 35 PA·Brl 11.8%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.6%
H 63·K 76
Austin Hedges
RHB·0 HR / 33 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
10.4%
H 58·K 68
Steven Kwan
LHB·1 HR / 112 PA·Brl 1.1%
vs SP: 5-for-19 · .263 · 0 HR · 3 K · 19 PA
10.0%
H 57·K 56
Home Lineup
Toronto Blue Jays
Daulton Varsho
LHB·3 HR / 88 PA·Brl 4.8%
13.8%
H 63·K 60
Jesús Sánchez
LHB·3 HR / 83 PA·Brl 6.8%
13.2%
H 64·K 59
Kazuma Okamoto
RHB·4 HR / 101 PA·Brl 9.1%
13.1%
H 64·K 70
Brandon Valenzuela
SHB·1 HR / 32 PA·Brl 5.3%
12.2%
H 57·K 75
Myles Straw
RHB·1 HR / 36 PA·Brl 3.4%
12.0%
H 64·K 56
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
RHB·2 HR / 107 PA·Brl 11.8%
11.8%
H 70·K 56
Davis Schneider
RHB·1 HR / 46 PA·Brl 19.0%
11.6%
H 62·K 73
Andrés Giménez
LHB·3 HR / 96 PA·Brl 4.1%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.5%
H 60·K 57
Eloy Jiménez
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 5.3%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.0%
H 64·K 66
Lenyn Sosa
RHB·0 HR / 57 PA·Brl 4.5%
vs SP: 2-for-9 · .222 · 0 HR · 3 K · 9 PA
10.6%
H 63·K 59
Tyler Heineman
SHB·0 HR / 40 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.4%
H 57·K 64
Nathan Lukes
LHB·0 HR / 56 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.3%
H 69·K 56
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.