Matchup · Sunday, April 26, 2026
Cleveland Guardians
at Toronto Blue Jays
1:37 PM ET · 10:37 AM PTRogers Centre, Torontoretractable roof
The Headline
Angel Martínez enters this game with a 15.5% model-estimated probability of homering at Rogers Centre, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor107
RHB HR factor105
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Slade Cecconi
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA6.20
WHIP1.58
IP24.2
HR/91.80
K/97.3
xwOBA0.388
Barrel%12.5%
Hard-hit%37.5%
Home Starter · LHP
Patrick Corbin
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA3.68
WHIP1.09
IP14.2
HR/91.20
K/97.4
xwOBA0.378
Barrel%12.2%
Hard-hit%46.3%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Cleveland Guardians
Angel Martínez
SHB·5 HR / 84 PA·Brl 11.9%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
15.5%
H 67·K 61
José Ramírez
SHB·6 HR / 122 PA·Brl 12.2%
vs SP: 2-for-11 · .182 · 0 HR · 0 K · 11 PA
15.3%
H 65·K 52
Daniel Schneemann
LHB·3 HR / 71 PA·Brl 12.2%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA
14.8%
H 65·K 72
Chase DeLauter
LHB·5 HR / 103 PA·Brl 10.7%
12.5%
H 61·K 52
Brayan Rocchio
SHB·3 HR / 99 PA·Brl 2.7%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
12.2%
H 70·K 52
David Fry
RHB·1 HR / 38 PA·Brl 11.8%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.2%
H 66·K 72
Bo Naylor
LHB·1 HR / 67 PA·Brl 11.4%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.1%
H 57·K 62
Kyle Manzardo
LHB·1 HR / 87 PA·Brl 8.5%
11.8%
H 62·K 72
Rhys Hoskins
RHB·1 HR / 78 PA·Brl 10.3%
vs SP: 11-for-36 · .306 · 4 HR · 10 K · 40 PA
11.7%
H 63·K 69
George Valera
LHB·0 HR / 35 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.9%
H 61·K 55
Austin Hedges
RHB·0 HR / 33 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 4-for-19 · .211 · 1 HR · 5 K · 22 PA
10.7%
H 59·K 64
Juan Brito
SHB·0 HR / 52 PA·Brl 3.4%
10.2%
H 57·K 69
Home Lineup
Toronto Blue Jays
Kazuma Okamoto
RHB·5 HR / 105 PA·Brl 12.3%
15.1%
H 67·K 66
Daulton Varsho
LHB·3 HR / 92 PA·Brl 6.1%
14.6%
H 62·K 56
Jesús Sánchez
LHB·3 HR / 85 PA·Brl 9.8%
14.0%
H 66·K 56
Nathan Lukes
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
13.3%
H 65·K 62
Brandon Valenzuela
SHB·1 HR / 32 PA·Brl 5.3%
13.0%
H 58·K 71
Myles Straw
RHB·1 HR / 41 PA·Brl 6.7%
12.6%
H 66·K 52
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
RHB·2 HR / 111 PA·Brl 12.5%
12.4%
H 68·K 52
Davis Schneider
RHB·1 HR / 50 PA·Brl 17.4%
12.2%
H 63·K 71
Andrés Giménez
LHB·3 HR / 100 PA·Brl 3.8%
12.2%
H 70·K 57
Eloy Jiménez
RHB·0 HR / 29 PA·Brl 5.0%
11.7%
H 65·K 62
Lenyn Sosa
RHB·0 HR / 57 PA·Brl 4.3%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 1 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
11.2%
H 64·K 55
Tyler Heineman
SHB·0 HR / 44 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.0%
H 59·K 60
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.