Matchup · Sunday, April 26, 2026
Minnesota Twins
at Tampa Bay Rays
1:40 PM ET · 10:40 AM PTTropicana Field, St. Petersburgdome roof
The Headline
Junior Caminero enters this game with a 16.9% model-estimated probability of homering at Tropicana Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor93
RHB HR factor95
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Simeon Woods Richardson
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA5.96
WHIP1.56
IP25.2
HR/91.80
K/94.6
xwOBA0.340
Barrel%8.8%
Hard-hit%40.7%
Home Starter · RHP
Jesse Scholtens
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA2.93
WHIP0.98
IP15.1
HR/90.60
K/97.6
xwOBA0.328
Barrel%6.8%
Hard-hit%38.6%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Minnesota Twins
Byron Buxton
RHB·5 HR / 115 PA·Brl 15.7%
vs SP: 0-for-0 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
14.4%
H 60·K 71
Tristan Gray
LHB·3 HR / 50 PA·Brl 13.3%
13.3%
H 62·K 72
Brooks Lee
SHB·4 HR / 91 PA·Brl 4.8%
12.9%
H 68·K 59
Royce Lewis
RHB·3 HR / 61 PA·Brl 12.9%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 1 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.9%
H 63·K 70
Ryan Jeffers
RHB·3 HR / 79 PA·Brl 14.9%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.7%
H 64·K 55
Kody Clemens
LHB·2 HR / 61 PA·Brl 17.1%
12.0%
H 60·K 70
Josh Bell
SHB·3 HR / 105 PA·Brl 8.6%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.2%
H 59·K 52
James Outman
LHB·0 HR / 24 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.7%
H 62·K 62
Austin Martin
RHB·1 HR / 76 PA·Brl 4.8%
10.7%
H 65·K 54
Matt Wallner
LHB·3 HR / 97 PA·Brl 8.7%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.6%
H 60·K 72
Trevor Larnach
LHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 7.7%
10.6%
H 65·K 59
Victor Caratini
SHB·1 HR / 88 PA·Brl 4.9%
10.3%
H 59·K 57
Home Lineup
Tampa Bay Rays
Junior Caminero
RHB·8 HR / 118 PA·Brl 12.0%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 1 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
16.9%
H 71·K 48
Jonathan Aranda
LHB·6 HR / 116 PA·Brl 12.1%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
14.4%
H 65·K 63
Jake Fraley
LHB·2 HR / 55 PA·Brl 8.6%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
12.5%
H 65·K 60
Jonny DeLuca
RHB·2 HR / 59 PA·Brl 6.7%
vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 1 K · 8 PA
11.8%
H 66·K 54
Cedric Mullins
LHB·2 HR / 93 PA·Brl 3.2%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 1 HR · 2 K · 7 PA
11.6%
H 57·K 52
Richie Palacios
LHB·1 HR / 51 PA·Brl 6.5%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.6%
H 66·K 49
Yandy Díaz
RHB·3 HR / 116 PA·Brl 4.8%
vs SP: 1-for-9 · .111 · 0 HR · 3 K · 9 PA
11.5%
H 71·K 48
Ryan Vilade
RHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.2%
H 65·K 56
Hunter Feduccia
LHB·0 HR / 32 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.8%
H 65·K 67
Nick Fortes
RHB·1 HR / 73 PA·Brl 1.8%
10.3%
H 64·K 51
Taylor Walls
SHB·0 HR / 58 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
9.9%
H 59·K 62
Ben Williamson
RHB·0 HR / 78 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
9.8%
H 68·K 60
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.