Matchup · Saturday, May 2, 2026
Philadelphia Phillies
at Miami Marlins
4:10 PM ET · 1:10 PM PTloanDepot park, Miamiretractable roof
The Headline
Kyle Schwarber enters this game with a 16.6% model-estimated probability of homering at loanDepot park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor91
RHB HR factor92
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Andrew Painter
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA5.25
WHIP1.50
IP24.0
HR/90.80
K/97.9
xwOBA0.315
Barrel%6.3%
Hard-hit%32.5%
Home Starter · RHP
Max Meyer
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA3.30
WHIP1.20
IP30.0
HR/90.60
K/99.9
xwOBA0.332
Barrel%9.5%
Hard-hit%38.1%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Philadelphia Phillies
vs Max Meyer
Kyle Schwarber
LHB·11 HR / 144 PA·Brl 21.1%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
16.6%
H 68·K 57
Bryce Harper
LHB·6 HR / 137 PA·Brl 12.9%
13.0%
H 62·K 56
Brandon Marsh
LHB·4 HR / 109 PA·Brl 5.1%
11.3%
H 65·K 51
Trea Turner
RHB·4 HR / 139 PA·Brl 5.1%
11.3%
H 68·K 53
Otto Kemp
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.1%
H 63·K 56
Felix Reyes
RHB·1 HR / 21 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.0%
H 57·K 56
J.T. Realmuto
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 1 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
11.0%
H 63·K 56
Edmundo Sosa
RHB·1 HR / 48 PA·Brl 5.9%
10.3%
H 64·K 52
Adolis García
RHB·3 HR / 130 PA·Brl 8.8%
10.3%
H 63·K 57
Garrett Stubbs
LHB·0 HR / 11 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.1%
H 63·K 56
Dylan Moore
RHB·0 HR / 15 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.0%
H 62·K 56
Rafael Marchán
SHB·1 HR / 54 PA·Brl 2.7%
9.1%
H 55·K 56
Home Lineup
Miami Marlins
Liam Hicks
LHB·7 HR / 108 PA·Brl 8.0%
13.8%
H 67·K 45
Connor Norby
RHB·3 HR / 110 PA·Brl 9.7%
11.3%
H 63·K 62
Heriberto Hernández
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.2%
H 64·K 54
Christopher Morel
RHB·0 HR / 8 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.8%
H 64·K 54
Agustín Ramírez
RHB·2 HR / 121 PA·Brl 5.0%
10.6%
H 64·K 55
Leo Jiménez
RHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.2%
H 64·K 54
Otto Lopez
RHB·3 HR / 132 PA·Brl 9.7%
10.1%
H 73·K 56
Kyle Stowers
LHB·0 HR / 46 PA·Brl 3.7%
9.9%
H 59·K 55
Owen Caissie
LHB·2 HR / 99 PA·Brl 12.2%
9.7%
H 63·K 62
Graham Pauley
LHB·1 HR / 72 PA·Brl 4.1%
9.7%
H 63·K 55
Jakob Marsee
LHB·1 HR / 146 PA·Brl 2.3%
8.7%
H 58·K 53
Javier Sanoja
RHB·0 HR / 72 PA·Brl 1.8%
8.5%
H 65·K 47
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.