Vol. I · Issue 22
Wednesday, April 22, 2026

The Dinger Almanac
··· Baseball Statistics & Analysis ···


Today's Slate/Players/Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber

BatsLeftThrowsRightAge33Height5'11"Weight229 lbs

Next Game · Wed, Apr 22

@ Chicago Cubs

7:40 PM ET · 4:40 PM PT
Wrigley Field

HR Probability
16.7%
low
Hit 59%K 76%

Schwarber's 21.8% barrel rate grades 1.45x league, and his 4.8% per-PA HR output runs 1.49x average—both elite marks that anchor the case despite Boyd's limited nine-inning sample.

Facing

Matthew Boyd

LHP
ERA
6.75
HR/9
1.00
Game Details

See full lineup analysis, both pitcher profiles, and park factors for this matchup.

Full matchup page →
CaveatsSmall sample for Matthew Boyd (9.1 IP)

2026 Statcast Profile

102 PA

Slash Line
AVG.217
OBP.363
SLG.554
OPS.917
ISO
HR: 8RBI: 15BB: 15K: 34
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
23.9%
Hard-Hit%
54.3%
Avg Exit Velo
92.9 mph
Launch Angle
24.3°
Expected Stats
xwOBA
.396
xISO
.306
K%
BB%

Splits & Recent Form


Handedness Splits
vs LHP
OPS
0 HR in 0 PA
vs RHP
OPS
0 HR in 0 PA
Last 15 Games
5
HRs
OPS
Barrel%
Over 65 PA in the last 15 games

Forecast History


14-Day Forecast History
avg 17.0%
0%5%10%15%Apr 18Apr 19Apr 22
HR hitNo HRPending

Each dot is a day's forecast. Filled dots mark games where Kyle Schwarber actually homered. Used to gauge whether our model's confidence is calibrated on this player specifically.

Last 15 Games


DateOppPAHHRK
Tue, Apr 21@ CHC4110
Tue, Apr 21@ CHC4110
Mon, Apr 20@ CHC502
Sun, Apr 19vs ATL5210
Sun, Apr 19vs ATL5210
Sat, Apr 18vs ATL411
Sat, Apr 18vs ATL411
Sat, Apr 18vs ATL411
Sat, Apr 18vs ATL411
Sat, Apr 18vs ATL411
How to Read These Numbers

Percentile bars show where each stat ranks within a reasonable league context, not strict percentiles. Values closer to the right edge are elite; left edge is poor. Read the full methodology for how we build HR probabilities and why most BvP splits aren't used.