Aaron Judge
@ Houston Astros
Judge's 25.1% barrel rate and 5.2% per-PA HR output both grade 1.5x league baseline, and McCullers' fastball-heavy arsenal yields a .351 xwOBA against Judge's pitch profile. The career 0-for-12 line against provides a minor counterweight.
See full lineup analysis, both pitcher profiles, and park factors for this matchup.
2026 Statcast Profile
Splits & Recent Form
Forecast History
Each dot is a day's forecast. Filled dots mark games where Aaron Judge actually homered. Used to gauge whether our model's confidence is calibrated on this player specifically.
Last 15 Games
Percentile bars show where each stat ranks within a reasonable league context, not strict percentiles. Values closer to the right edge are elite; left edge is poor. Read the full methodology for how we build HR probabilities and why most BvP splits aren't used.