Matchup · Friday, April 24, 2026
New York Yankees
at Houston Astros
8:10 PM ET · 5:10 PM PTDaikin Park, Houstonretractable roof
The Headline
Aaron Judge enters this game with a 17.8% model-estimated probability of homering at Daikin Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor101
RHB HR factor106
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Will Warren
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA2.49
WHIP1.11
IP25.1
HR/91.10
K/911.0
xwOBA0.306
Barrel%7.5%
Hard-hit%44.8%
Home Starter · RHP
Lance McCullers Jr.
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA6.20
WHIP1.38
IP20.1
HR/90.90
K/99.3
xwOBA0.332
Barrel%9.3%
Hard-hit%50.0%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
New York Yankees
Aaron Judge
RHB·9 HR / 109 PA·Brl 25.9%
vs SP: 2-for-11 · .182 · 0 HR · 3 K · 12 PA
17.8%
H 64·K 67
Ben Rice
LHB·8 HR / 95 PA·Brl 22.2%
16.9%
H 66·K 73
Amed Rosario
RHB·4 HR / 58 PA·Brl 14.0%
vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 4 K · 6 PA
15.4%
H 65·K 55
Trent Grisham
LHB·3 HR / 87 PA·Brl 11.3%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
14.2%
H 59·K 62
Giancarlo Stanton
RHB·3 HR / 93 PA·Brl 19.0%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 1 HR · 2 K · 9 PA
13.8%
H 63·K 73
Paul Goldschmidt
RHB·1 HR / 29 PA·Brl 18.8%
vs SP: 3-for-4 · .750 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
12.8%
H 63·K 64
Cody Bellinger
LHB·3 HR / 102 PA·Brl 8.3%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.2%
H 68·K 54
Ryan McMahon
LHB·1 HR / 59 PA·Brl 10.7%
12.0%
H 61·K 72
Randal Grichuk
RHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 21.1%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.6%
H 63·K 64
Austin Wells
LHB·1 HR / 75 PA·Brl 6.7%
11.4%
H 63·K 54
J.C. Escarra
LHB·0 HR / 20 PA·Brl 15.4%
11.2%
H 63·K 64
José Caballero
RHB·1 HR / 89 PA·Brl 3.4%
11.0%
H 65·K 64
Home Lineup
Houston Astros
vs Will Warren
Yordan Alvarez
LHB·11 HR / 118 PA·Brl 21.2%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
17.5%
H 72·K 56
Christian Walker
RHB·5 HR / 106 PA·Brl 12.0%
14.6%
H 61·K 60
Shay Whitcomb
RHB·1 HR / 10 PA·Brl 33.3%
13.7%
H 62·K 66
Christian Vázquez
RHB·2 HR / 41 PA·Brl 3.6%
13.1%
H 69·K 64
Brice Matthews
RHB·1 HR / 42 PA·Brl 10.0%
13.0%
H 62·K 76
Nick Allen
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.4%
H 63·K 66
Joey Loperfido
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.3%
H 63·K 66
Taylor Trammell
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.3%
H 63·K 66
Isaac Paredes
RHB·2 HR / 87 PA·Brl 3.4%
12.2%
H 65·K 62
Daniel Johnson
LHB·0 HR / 6 PA·Brl 0.0%
12.1%
H 62·K 66
Jose Altuve
RHB·3 HR / 113 PA·Brl 7.8%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.6%
H 58·K 64
Cam Smith
RHB·3 HR / 103 PA·Brl 15.2%
11.5%
H 58·K 67
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.