Vol. I · Issue 22
Wednesday, April 22, 2026

The Dinger Almanac
··· Baseball Statistics & Analysis ···


Today's Slate/Players/Ben Rice

Ben Rice

BatsLeftThrowsRightAge27Height6'2"Weight228 lbs

Next Game · Wed, Apr 22

@ Boston Red Sox

6:45 PM ET · 3:45 PM PT
Fenway Park

HR Probability
15.5%
medium
Hit 66%K 65%

Rice's 5.3% per-PA HR rate and 17.5% barrel percentage both grade 1.3–1.5x league, and Suarez's fastball-heavy arsenal (.350 xwOBA) plays into Rice's profile despite the 95 HR factor at Fenway.

Facing

Ranger Suarez

LHP
ERA
3.22
HR/9
0.80
Game Details

See full lineup analysis, both pitcher profiles, and park factors for this matchup.

Full matchup page →

2026 Statcast Profile

89 PA

Slash Line
AVG.319
OBP.461
SLG.754
OPS1.215
ISO
HR: 8RBI: 18BB: 18K: 25
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
22.2%
Hard-Hit%
64.4%
Avg Exit Velo
94.8 mph
Launch Angle
13.4°
Expected Stats
xwOBA
.461
xISO
.364
K%
BB%

Splits & Recent Form


Handedness Splits
vs LHP
OPS
0 HR in 0 PA
vs RHP
OPS
0 HR in 0 PA
Last 15 Games
6
HRs
OPS
Barrel%
Over 58 PA in the last 15 games

Forecast History


14-Day Forecast History
avg 17.0%
0%5%10%15%Apr 18Apr 19Apr 22
HR hitNo HRPending

Each dot is a day's forecast. Filled dots mark games where Ben Rice actually homered. Used to gauge whether our model's confidence is calibrated on this player specifically.

Last 15 Games


DateOppPAHHRK
Tue, Apr 21@ BOS504
Tue, Apr 21@ BOS504
Sun, Apr 19vs KC5111
Sun, Apr 19vs KC5111
Sat, Apr 18vs KC5110
Sat, Apr 18vs KC5110
Sat, Apr 18vs KC5110
Sat, Apr 18vs KC5110
Sat, Apr 18vs KC5110
How to Read These Numbers

Percentile bars show where each stat ranks within a reasonable league context, not strict percentiles. Values closer to the right edge are elite; left edge is poor. Read the full methodology for how we build HR probabilities and why most BvP splits aren't used.