Matchup · Wednesday, April 22, 2026
New York Yankees
at Boston Red Sox
6:45 PM ET · 3:45 PM PTFenway Park, Bostonopen roof
The Headline
Aaron Judge enters this game with a 16.3% model-estimated probability of homering at Fenway Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor95
RHB HR factor99
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Max Fried
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA2.97
WHIP0.81
IP33.1
HR/90.30
K/96.2
xwOBA0.243
Barrel%1.1%
Hard-hit%29.8%
Home Starter · LHP
Ranger Suarez
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA3.22
WHIP1.07
IP22.1
HR/90.80
K/96.0
xwOBA0.334
Barrel%9.2%
Hard-hit%38.5%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
New York Yankees
Aaron Judge
RHB·9 HR / 100 PA·Brl 28.3%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
16.3%
H 63·K 64
Ben Rice
LHB·8 HR / 89 PA·Brl 22.2%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
15.5%
H 66·K 65
Amed Rosario
RHB·3 HR / 53 PA·Brl 13.2%
vs SP: 3-for-8 · .375 · 1 HR · 0 K · 9 PA
13.3%
H 63·K 54
Trent Grisham
LHB·3 HR / 81 PA·Brl 11.5%
vs SP: 3-for-8 · .375 · 1 HR · 1 K · 9 PA
13.0%
H 58·K 55
Giancarlo Stanton
RHB·3 HR / 85 PA·Brl 13.7%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA
12.4%
H 59·K 70
Paul Goldschmidt
RHB·1 HR / 25 PA·Brl 21.4%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 2 K · 7 PA
12.1%
H 62·K 59
Cody Bellinger
LHB·3 HR / 96 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 3-for-12 · .250 · 0 HR · 4 K · 13 PA
11.7%
H 68·K 48
Ryan McMahon
LHB·1 HR / 57 PA·Brl 10.7%
vs SP: 6-for-16 · .375 · 1 HR · 6 K · 17 PA
11.3%
H 62·K 65
Austin Wells
LHB·1 HR / 68 PA·Brl 7.7%
10.8%
H 63·K 51
Randal Grichuk
RHB·0 HR / 26 PA·Brl 30.8%
vs SP: 2-for-7 · .286 · 0 HR · 1 K · 8 PA
10.8%
H 62·K 58
J.C. Escarra
LHB·0 HR / 20 PA·Brl 15.4%
10.5%
H 63·K 60
José Caballero
RHB·1 HR / 82 PA·Brl 3.7%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.3%
H 69·K 63
Home Lineup
Boston Red Sox
vs Max Fried
Willson Contreras
RHB·4 HR / 93 PA·Brl 16.7%
vs SP: 2-for-7 · .286 · 0 HR · 2 K · 8 PA
12.6%
H 59·K 64
Marcelo Mayer
LHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 9.3%
10.3%
H 61·K 54
Trevor Story
RHB·2 HR / 102 PA·Brl 4.9%
vs SP: 4-for-16 · .250 · 2 HR · 5 K · 17 PA
10.2%
H 59·K 67
Wilyer Abreu
LHB·3 HR / 92 PA·Brl 11.3%
10.1%
H 59·K 58
Jarren Duran
LHB·1 HR / 75 PA·Brl 10.9%
vs SP: 0-for-10 · .000 · 0 HR · 5 K · 10 PA
9.8%
H 54·K 67
Andruw Monasterio
RHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 5.3%
9.8%
H 63·K 63
Connor Wong
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 5.0%
vs SP: 3-for-10 · .300 · 0 HR · 3 K · 11 PA
9.6%
H 61·K 57
Roman Anthony
LHB·1 HR / 97 PA·Brl 11.3%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
9.4%
H 57·K 56
Ceddanne Rafaela
RHB·1 HR / 75 PA·Brl 8.3%
vs SP: 2-for-10 · .200 · 0 HR · 3 K · 10 PA
9.4%
H 61·K 55
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 4-for-8 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 8 PA
9.4%
H 61·K 58
Carlos Narváez
RHB·0 HR / 53 PA·Brl 5.9%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
9.4%
H 61·K 63
Masataka Yoshida
LHB·0 HR / 48 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.2%
H 64·K 50
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.