Matchup · Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Philadelphia Phillies
at Chicago Cubs

7:40 PM ET · 4:40 PM PTWrigley Field, Chicagoopen roof

The Headline

Kyle Schwarber enters this game with a 16.0% model-estimated probability of homering at Wrigley Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor104

RHB HR factor103

Probable Starters

Away Starter · LHP

Kyle Backhus

HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone

Contact Quality AllowedBelow average

ERA5.40

WHIP1.20

IP6.2

HR/92.70

K/912.2

xwOBA0.300

Barrel%11.1%

Hard-hit%38.9%

Home Starter · LHP

Matthew Boyd

HR VulnerabilityGood

Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled

ERA6.75

WHIP1.18

IP9.1

HR/91.00

K/916.4

xwOBA0.333

Barrel%17.6%

Hard-hit%58.8%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Philadelphia Phillies

vs Matthew Boyd

Kyle Schwarber

LHB·8 HR / 102 PA·Brl 23.9%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

16.0%

H 57·K 77

Bryce Harper

LHB·5 HR / 96 PA·Brl 13.6%

vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

13.5%

H 68·K 58

Brandon Marsh

LHB·2 HR / 80 PA·Brl 5.4%

vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

12.3%

H 62·K 67

Edmundo Sosa

RHB·1 HR / 34 PA·Brl 4.5%

vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

12.0%

H 60·K 65

Rafael Marchán

SHB·1 HR / 32 PA·Brl 4.2%

12.0%

H 55·K 67

Dylan Moore

RHB·0 HR / 10 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

11.6%

H 62·K 67

Trea Turner

RHB·2 HR / 102 PA·Brl 4.2%

vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

11.6%

H 57·K 60

Adolis García

RHB·2 HR / 93 PA·Brl 11.3%

vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 7 PA

11.5%

H 56·K 70

J.T. Realmuto

RHB·1 HR / 61 PA·Brl 2.6%

vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 2 K · 6 PA

11.3%

H 62·K 56

Bryson Stott

LHB·0 HR / 67 PA·Brl 5.8%

10.1%

H 63·K 59

Alec Bohm

RHB·1 HR / 88 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

9.9%

H 55·K 66

Home Lineup

Chicago Cubs

vs Kyle Backhus

Dansby Swanson

RHB·5 HR / 95 PA·Brl 15.1%

vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 1 HR · 0 K · 1 PA

15.9%

H 63·K 65

Moisés Ballesteros

LHB·3 HR / 51 PA·Brl 13.9%

15.0%

H 65·K 57

Ian Happ

SHB·6 HR / 98 PA·Brl 18.4%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA

14.8%

H 68·K 71

Matt Shaw

RHB·2 HR / 62 PA·Brl 8.7%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA

13.2%

H 64·K 65

Carson Kelly

RHB·2 HR / 69 PA·Brl 14.0%

13.2%

H 67·K 60

Nico Hoerner

RHB·4 HR / 107 PA·Brl 3.8%

vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA

12.9%

H 72·K 54

Miguel Amaya

RHB·1 HR / 44 PA·Brl 3.8%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA

12.1%

H 63·K 67

Seiya Suzuki

RHB·1 HR / 48 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

11.8%

H 63·K 68

Michael Conforto

LHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 7.1%

11.6%

H 64·K 72

Pete Crow-Armstrong

LHB·1 HR / 97 PA·Brl 5.0%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA

11.5%

H 59·K 67

Alex Bregman

RHB·2 HR / 107 PA·Brl 5.3%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

10.5%

H 63·K 58

Michael Busch

LHB·0 HR / 93 PA·Brl 3.3%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA

10.5%

H 61·K 66

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.