Matchup · Friday, April 17, 2026
Baltimore Orioles
at Cleveland Guardians
6:10 PM ET · 3:10 PM PTProgressive Field, Clevelandopen roof
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Chris Bassitt
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA6.19
WHIP2.13
IP16.0
HR/90.60
K/93.9
xwOBA0.391
Barrel%2.2%
Hard-hit%39.1%
Home Starter · RHP
Tanner Bibee
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA4.81
WHIP1.52
IP24.1
HR/91.50
K/98.5
xwOBA0.347
Barrel%10.3%
Hard-hit%51.7%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Baltimore Orioles
vs Tanner Bibee
Gunnar Henderson
LHB·6 HR / 95 PA·Brl 10.7%
vs SP: 4-for-9 · .444 · 1 HR · 2 K · 9 PA
—
Jeremiah Jackson
RHB·5 HR / 62 PA·Brl 11.6%
—
Samuel Basallo
LHB·3 HR / 61 PA·Brl 11.1%
—
Pete Alonso
RHB·2 HR / 88 PA·Brl 8.3%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
—
Dylan Beavers
LHB·1 HR / 54 PA·Brl 2.9%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
—
Blaze Alexander
RHB·0 HR / 50 PA·Brl 3.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
—
Coby Mayo
RHB·0 HR / 55 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Colton Cowser
LHB·0 HR / 49 PA·Brl 10.3%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA
—
Johnathan Rodríguez
RHB·0 HR / 8 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Taylor Ward
RHB·0 HR / 94 PA·Brl 1.7%
vs SP: 3-for-11 · .273 · 1 HR · 3 K · 12 PA
—
Leody Taveras
SHB·0 HR / 44 PA·Brl 4.2%
vs SP: 3-for-8 · .375 · 0 HR · 2 K · 8 PA
—
Sam Huff
RHB·0 HR / 5 PA·Brl 33.3%
—
Home Lineup
Cleveland Guardians
Chase DeLauter
LHB·5 HR / 76 PA·Brl 15.7%
—
José Ramírez
SHB·4 HR / 92 PA·Brl 12.3%
vs SP: 3-for-10 · .300 · 0 HR · 3 K · 13 PA
—
Daniel Schneemann
LHB·2 HR / 51 PA·Brl 9.7%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
—
Angel Martínez
SHB·2 HR / 67 PA·Brl 6.1%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
—
Brayan Rocchio
SHB·2 HR / 72 PA·Brl 3.8%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
—
Kyle Manzardo
LHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 12.1%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
—
Rhys Hoskins
RHB·1 HR / 56 PA·Brl 14.3%
vs SP: 2-for-10 · .200 · 0 HR · 2 K · 11 PA
—
Steven Kwan
LHB·1 HR / 89 PA·Brl 1.5%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
—
David Fry
RHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 13.3%
—
Austin Hedges
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
—
Bo Naylor
LHB·0 HR / 46 PA·Brl 13.8%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 2 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
—
George Valera
LHB·0 HR / 11 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.