Matchup · Friday, April 17, 2026
Milwaukee Brewers
at Miami Marlins
7:10 PM ET · 4:10 PM PTloanDepot park, Miamiretractable roof
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Coleman Crow
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality Allowed—
ERA3.38
WHIP0.94
IP5.1
HR/90.00
K/96.8
xwOBA—
Barrel%undefined%
Hard-hit%undefined%
Home Starter · RHP
Janson Junk
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA4.50
WHIP1.32
IP22.0
HR/90.80
K/96.1
xwOBA0.288
Barrel%3.8%
Hard-hit%42.3%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Milwaukee Brewers
vs Janson Junk
Jake Bauers
LHB·5 HR / 66 PA·Brl 14.3%
—
Gary Sánchez
RHB·5 HR / 47 PA·Brl 22.7%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
—
Brice Turang
LHB·3 HR / 79 PA·Brl 11.4%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
—
William Contreras
RHB·2 HR / 78 PA·Brl 3.7%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
—
Garrett Mitchell
LHB·1 HR / 58 PA·Brl 19.0%
—
Sal Frelick
LHB·1 HR / 73 PA·Brl 2.3%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
—
Joey Ortiz
RHB·0 HR / 54 PA·Brl 5.3%
—
Blake Perkins
SHB·0 HR / 35 PA·Brl 4.5%
—
Brandon Lockridge
RHB·0 HR / 53 PA·Brl 2.7%
—
Luis Matos
RHB·0 HR / 15 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Greg Jones
SHB·0 HR / 8 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
David Hamilton
LHB·0 HR / 56 PA·Brl 3.1%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
—
Home Lineup
Miami Marlins
vs Coleman Crow
Liam Hicks
LHB·4 HR / 67 PA·Brl 7.7%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
—
Otto Lopez
RHB·3 HR / 80 PA·Brl 12.7%
—
Connor Norby
RHB·2 HR / 70 PA·Brl 9.8%
—
Owen Caissie
LHB·2 HR / 60 PA·Brl 21.4%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
—
Xavier Edwards
SHB·1 HR / 85 PA·Brl 3.2%
—
Agustín Ramírez
RHB·1 HR / 79 PA·Brl 6.1%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
—
Graham Pauley
LHB·0 HR / 48 PA·Brl 3.0%
—
Heriberto Hernández
RHB·0 HR / 56 PA·Brl 5.9%
—
Jakob Marsee
LHB·0 HR / 91 PA·Brl 1.9%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
—
Deyvison De Los Santos
RHB·0 HR / 7 PA·Brl 25.0%
—
Austin Slater
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Javier Sanoja
RHB·0 HR / 47 PA·Brl 2.8%
—
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.